St. Pölten W v SK Rapid W prediction · Frauenliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

St. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W ST. PÖLTEN W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Pölten W win~~90%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.015

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Pölten W win at 90%.
1′Much as we predicted: St. Pölten W was 90% before kick-off and our model makes it 90% now. 0–0 · 90–7–3
1′KICK-OFF St. Pölten W v SK Rapid W
21′St. Pölten W score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–1
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' St. Pölten W 1–0 SK Rapid W
27′18′: M. Rukavina on the scoresheet for St. Pölten W, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–4–1
30′St. Pölten W find the net on 30′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' St. Pölten W 2–0 SK Rapid W
33′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' SK Rapid W
37′St. Pölten W ahead on 28′ through A. Aagaard. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
42′A goal for St. Pölten W on 41′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' St. Pölten W 3–0 SK Rapid W
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' St. Pölten W win: 90% at kick-off, over 99% now
44′St. Pölten W score on 43′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' St. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W
45′HALF-TIME St. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W
46′SECOND HALF St. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SK Rapid W · On: R. Leidler · Off: I. Schneiderbauer
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' St. Pölten W · On: L. Ebert · Off: D. Lemesova
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' St. Pölten W · On: V. Laino · Off: F. Nagy
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' St. Pölten W · On: L. Balog · Off: M. Rukavina
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' St. Pölten W · On: L. Vadasz · Off: F. Vago
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' SK Rapid W · On: S. Zoger · Off: L. Khalaf
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' SK Rapid W · On: J. Konig · Off: V. Rauter
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' St. Pölten W · On: E. Scheuher · Off: A. Aagaard
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SK Rapid W · On: A. Seidl · Off: I. Taucher
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' SK Rapid W · On: V. Bittendorfer · Off: E. Brandl
FTFULL TIME St. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W
FTSt. Pölten W 4–0 SK Rapid W · St. Pölten W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Pölten W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Pölten W 90%, draw 7%, SK Rapid W 3%. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on St. Pölten W v SK Rapid WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

St. Pölten W win90%

Draw7%

SK Rapid W win3%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueNV Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Pölten W

SK Rapid W

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Frauenliga

Last match: 17 Oct · Frauenliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	St. Pölten W	9	+20	22
8	SK Rapid W	9	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · st. pölten w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

90% The market–

Us90%

We make St. Pölten W a 90% chance to win. The model expects 3.9–0.6, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Pölten W v SK Rapid W~~3.90 – 0.56

~~Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 7~~3 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St. Pölten W win

Published at 91%, 90% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Pölten W win	90%	–	–
Draw	7%	–	–
SK Rapid W win	3%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	79%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
St. Pölten W or draw	97%	–	–
St. Pölten W clean sheet	58%	–	–
SK Rapid W clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 10.8%

0123450 1 5.6 3.0 2 9.3 5.2 3 10.8 6.0 4 9.9 5.3 5 7.6 3.9

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Pölten W down, SK Rapid W across0–5 goals a side shown (78.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 548 Frauenliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauenliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.0% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

St. Pölten W at home: 3.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SK Rapid W away: 1.20 scored, 2.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

3.90 goals for St. Pölten W, 0.56 for SK Rapid W. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 29 Aug

ST. PÖLTEN W

WWWWDL2–0 · 4–1 · 9–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

SK RAPID W

DWLLLD1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sturm Graz W	11	+21	26
2	Austria Wien W	9	+26	22
3	St. Pölten W	9	+20	22
4	Rheindorf Altach W	9	+4	16
5	Salzburg W	10	−3	16
6	LASK W	11	−8	11
7	First Vienna W	10	−8	8
8	SK Rapid W	9	−9	7
9	Südburgenland W	10	−21	5
10	Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W	10	−22	4