St. Pölten W v Austria Wien W prediction · Frauenliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

St. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W ST. PÖLTEN W WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said St. Pölten W win~~42%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.726

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.547

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said St. Pölten W win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: St. Pölten W was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF St. Pölten W v Austria Wien W
4′A goal for Austria Wien W on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' St. Pölten W 0–1 Austria Wien W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' St. Pölten W win: 42% at kick-off, 18% now
4′THE CALL SWINGS · 4' Austria Wien W win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was St. Pölten W win 18%)
5′We said St. Pölten W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–23–59
12′Austria Wien W score on 11′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 6–11–83
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' St. Pölten W 0–2 Austria Wien W
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' St. Pölten W win: 42% at kick-off, 6% now
13′We said St. Pölten W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 0–2 · 5–11–84
14′13′: M. Uka on the scoresheet for Austria Wien W, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–84
16′🟨 YELLOW · 15' St. Pölten W
21′St. Pölten W find the net on 21′. 1–2. 1–2 · 15–23–62
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' St. Pölten W 1–2 Austria Wien W
22′We said St. Pölten W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–23–62
22′We said St. Pölten W at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–2 · 4–10–86
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' St. Pölten W
22′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' St. Pölten W
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Austria Wien W
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Austria Wien W
31′Austria Wien W find the net on 30′. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
31′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 1–3–97
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' St. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' St. Pölten W win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
34′Austria Wien W ahead on 33′ through an own goal by F. Nagy. 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
45′HALF-TIME St. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W
46′SECOND HALF St. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' St. Pölten W · On: T. Vracevic · Off: V. Laino
57′SUBSTITUTION · 54' St. Pölten W · On: I. Aistleitner · Off: A. Aagaard
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' St. Pölten W
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' St. Pölten W · On: A. Woelki · Off: I. Krizaj
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' St. Pölten W · On: L. Vadasz · Off: M. Rukavina
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Austria Wien W · On: Y. Weilharter · Off: V. Hanshaw
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' St. Pölten W
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' St. Pölten W · On: J. Tabotta · Off: L. Ebert
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Austria Wien W · On: S. Jakobsen · Off: E. Pfattner Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Austria Wien W
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Austria Wien W · On: A. Schorn · Off: L. Schoffel
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Austria Wien W · On: S. Jakobsen · Off: P. Pfanner
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Austria Wien W · On: A. Sisic · Off: M. Uka
FTFULL TIME St. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W
FTSt. Pölten W 0–3 Austria Wien W · St. Pölten W win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

St. Pölten W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: St. Pölten W 42%, draw 28%, Austria Wien W 31%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on St. Pölten W v Austria Wien WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

St. Pölten W win42%

Draw28%

Austria Wien W win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueNV Arena

Line-ups

St. Pölten W

Austria Wien W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

St. Pölten W

Austria Wien W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauenliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

St. Pölten W

Formation not confirmed

33 C. Schluter

21 I. Krizaj

77 D. Lemesova

22 J. Klein

16 F. Nagy

4 L. Balog

8 V. Laino

11 M. Rukavina

23 F. Vago

6 L. Ebert

10 A. Aagaard

Coach · Laurent Fassotte

Substitutes

5 · T. Vracevic

9 · I. Aistleitner

12 · L. Hermsmeier

18 · A. Woelki

19 · L. Matavkova

26 · L. Vadasz

30 · J. Tabotta

Austria Wien W

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Pal

5 T. Weiss

23 C. Wenninger

13 V. Kirchberger

2 L. Schoffel

6 L. Cordes

7 E. Pfattner

18 V. Hanshaw

15 P. Pfanner

22 M. Uka

29 V. Potzl

Coach · Stefan Kenesei

Substitutes

8 · K. Schiechtl

11 · A. Sisic

12 · E. Goetz

14 · S. Jakobsen

21 · L. Orkic

24 · Y. Weilharter

26 · A. Schorn

Our number · st. pölten w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

42% The market33%

Us42%

~~Market~~33%

We make St. Pölten W a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · St. Pölten W v Austria Wien W~~1.26 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 19~~1 v 3

~~The market · St. Pölten W win~~33% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · St. Pölten W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
St. Pölten W win	42%	33%	+9
Draw	28%	28%	0
Austria Wien W win	31%	40%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
Both teams to score	44%	55%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	64%	73%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
St. Pölten W or draw	69%	60%	+9
St. Pölten W clean sheet	37%	–	–
Austria Wien W clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 11.3 11.4 5.4 1 13.1 11.4 6.2 2.2 2 7.5 7.5 4.0 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+St. Pölten W down, Austria Wien W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 545 Frauenliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauenliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

St. Pölten W at home: 3.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Austria Wien W away: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for St. Pölten W, 1.03 for Austria Wien W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUS 0–1 STP · AUS 1–1 STP · STP 0–0 AUS · AUS 2–1 STP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 21 Aug

ST. PÖLTEN W

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 9–1 · 4–0 · 2–2

AUSTRIA WIEN W

WDWWWW7–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Pölten W	8	+23	22
2	Sturm Graz W	9	+14	20
3	Austria Wien W	8	+23	19
4	Rheindorf Altach W	8	+6	16
5	Salzburg W	10	−3	16
6	LASK W	10	−3	11
7	First Vienna W	10	−8	8
8	SK Rapid W	9	−9	7
9	Südburgenland W	10	−21	5
10	Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W	10	−22	4