Salzburg W v Sturm Graz W prediction · Frauenliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Salzburg WDrawSturm Graz W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sturm Graz W 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Salzburg W 23%, draw 21%, Sturm Graz W 56%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Salzburg W v Sturm Graz WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Salzburg W win23%

Draw21%

Sturm Graz W win56%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Salzburg W

Sturm Graz W

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Frauenliga

Last match: 23 Oct · Frauenliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sturm graz w winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Sturm Graz W a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Salzburg W v Sturm Graz W~~1.13 – 1.93

~~Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 26~~4 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Salzburg W win	23%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Sturm Graz W win	56%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Salzburg W or draw	44%	–	–
Salzburg W clean sheet	16%	–	–
Sturm Graz W clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.8 9.6 8.6 5.5 2.8 1 6.0 9.7 9.2 5.9 2.9 2 3.2 5.7 5.2 3.3 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Salzburg W down, Sturm Graz W across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 551 Frauenliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauenliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.9% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Salzburg W at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sturm Graz W away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Salzburg W, 1.93 for Sturm Graz W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~STU 2–0 SAL · STU 2–2 SAL · SAL 0–1 STU · STU 5–5 SAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 12 Sept

SALZBURG W

LDWWWW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 4–0

STURM GRAZ W

WWLDWW4–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sturm Graz W	11	+21	26
2	St. Pölten W	10	+24	25
3	Austria Wien W	10	+26	23
4	Salzburg W	11	+1	19
5	Rheindorf Altach W	10	+4	17
6	LASK W	11	−8	11
7	First Vienna W	10	−8	8
8	SK Rapid W	10	−13	7
9	Südburgenland W	10	−21	5
10	Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W	11	−26	4