Rheindorf Altach W v Sturm Graz W prediction · Frauenliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Rheindorf Altach W 0–2 Sturm Graz W STURM GRAZ W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sturm Graz W win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.317

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.346

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sturm Graz W win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sturm Graz W was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 26–20–54
1′KICK-OFF Rheindorf Altach W v Sturm Graz W
13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Sturm Graz W
17′Sturm Graz W score on 17′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 10–16–74
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Rheindorf Altach W 0–1 Sturm Graz W
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 74% now
18′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 10–16–74
19′GOAL DISALLOWED · 19' Sturm Graz W
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 51% now
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Rheindorf Altach W 0–1 Sturm Graz W
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 74% now
24′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 9–16–75
24′GOAL DISALLOWED · 24' Sturm Graz W
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 50% now
34′PENALTY MISSED · 34' Rheindorf Altach W
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
45′HALF-TIME Rheindorf Altach W 0–0 Sturm Graz W
46′SECOND HALF Rheindorf Altach W 0–0 Sturm Graz W
48′We said Sturm Graz W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 0–0 · 24–34–42
56′We said Sturm Graz W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 22–39–39
56′We expected about 3.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 22–39–39
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Sturm Graz W win 37%)
64′We said Sturm Graz W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 20–46–34
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Rheindorf Altach W · On: A. Baumgartner · Off: J. Meister
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sturm Graz W · On: L. Tragl · Off: J. Wattilete
70′We said Sturm Graz W at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
72′Sturm Graz W score on 72′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–14–83
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Rheindorf Altach W 0–1 Sturm Graz W
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Sturm Graz W win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 14%)
73′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 2–14–84
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
75′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
82′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Sturm Graz W · On: J. Keutz · Off: L. Krumbock
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rheindorf Altach W · On: L. Scheel · Off: E. Purtscher
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rheindorf Altach W · On: V. Gajdek · Off: M. Walter
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Sturm Graz W win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′Sturm Graz W find the net on 89′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Rheindorf Altach W 0–2 Sturm Graz W
90′We published Sturm Graz W at 54%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Sturm Graz W
92′Sturm Graz W ahead on 88′ through an own goal by F. Luscher. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rheindorf Altach W · On: M. Bertsch · Off: E. Rittmann
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Sturm Graz W · On: K. Weber · Off: L. Breznik
FTFULL TIME Rheindorf Altach W 0–2 Sturm Graz W
FTRheindorf Altach W 0–2 Sturm Graz W · Sturm Graz W win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rheindorf Altach W 26%, draw 20%, Sturm Graz W 54%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Rheindorf Altach W v Sturm Graz WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rheindorf Altach W win26%

Draw20%

Sturm Graz W win54%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:45

RoundMatchday 10

Line-ups

Rheindorf Altach W

Sturm Graz W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rheindorf Altach W

Sturm Graz W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · Frauenliga

Last match: 4 Oct · Frauenliga

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sturm Graz W	9	+14	20
4	Rheindorf Altach W	8	+6	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rheindorf Altach W

Formation not confirmed

33 S. Busse

6 E. Purtscher

22 F. Luscher

11 M. Walter

17 N. Ebersold

19 J. Kofler

15 L. Reisinger

14 E. Rittmann

20 V. Ellgass

9 P. Mikulica

30 J. Meister

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · A. Baumgartner

10 · Y. Kabashi

12 · V. Gajdek

13 · M. Bertsch

21 · Z. Steenhuis

24 · S. Stampfli

34 · L. Scheel

Sturm Graz W

Formation not confirmed

21 V. Gritzner

19 S. Grossgasteiger

29 J. Wattilete

3 M. Bormans

28 M. Spiess

15 S. Maierhofer

16 S. Pavlovic

17 L. Breznik

10 L. Krumbock

77 L. Sipos

7 B. Pulins

Coach · Tode Djakovic

Substitutes

1 · S. Dubel

4 · L. Krejcova

5 · N. Wippel

8 · J. Keutz

14 · K. Weber

20 · M. Achatz

26 · L. Tragl

Our number · sturm graz w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make Sturm Graz W a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rheindorf Altach W v Sturm Graz W~~1.38 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 20~~4 v 2

~~The market · Sturm Graz W win~~52% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sturm Graz W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rheindorf Altach W win	26%	25%	+1
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Sturm Graz W win	54%	52%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	64%	+3
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	43%	+3
Rheindorf Altach W or draw	46%	48%	−2
Rheindorf Altach W clean sheet	13%	–	–
Sturm Graz W clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 3.1 7.2 6.8 4.7 2.6 1 5.0 8.4 8.8 6.1 3.3 2 3.1 6.0 5.9 4.1 2.2 3 2.8 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rheindorf Altach W down, Sturm Graz W across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 545 Frauenliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Frauenliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rheindorf Altach W at home: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sturm Graz W away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Rheindorf Altach W, 2.12 for Sturm Graz W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~STU 6–2 RHE · RHE 0–2 STU · STU 0–2 RHE · RHE 1–3 STU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Frauenliga this season · since 21 Aug

RHEINDORF ALTACH W

WDWWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 6–1

STURM GRAZ W

DWWWLD1–1 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	St. Pölten W	8	+23	22
2	Sturm Graz W	9	+14	20
3	Austria Wien W	8	+23	19
4	Rheindorf Altach W	8	+6	16
5	Salzburg W	10	−3	16
6	LASK W	10	−3	11
7	First Vienna W	10	−8	8
8	SK Rapid W	9	−9	7
9	Südburgenland W	10	−21	5
10	Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W	10	−22	4