Lask Linz v Ried prediction · Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lask LinzDrawRied

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lask Linz 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lask Linz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lask Linz 58%, draw 24%, Ried 18%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Lask Linz v RiedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Lask Linz win58%

Draw24%

Ried win18%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 16

VenueRaiffeisen Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lask Linz

Ried

7Days since last match11

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lask linz winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Lask Linz a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lask Linz v Ried~~1.95 – 1.00

~~Form · Cup this season · since 24 July~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lask Linz win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Ried win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Lask Linz or draw	82%	–	–
Lask Linz clean sheet	37%	–	–
Ried clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.5 4.1 2.6 1 9.1 11.3 5.1 2 9.9 9.8 5.0 3 6.4 6.4 3.2 4 3.1 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lask Linz down, Ried across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,030 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lask Linz at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ried away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Lask Linz, 1.00 for Ried. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAS 4–1 RIE · RIE 1–1 LAS · RIE 1–1 LAS · LAS 1–3 RIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 24 July

LASK LINZ

WW7–0 · 6–1

RIED

WW5–1 · 5–1

Lask Linz v Ried

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

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Rest & schedule

Lask Linz

Ried

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Cup this season · since 24 July