Austria Vienna v TSV Hartberg prediction · Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Austria ViennaDrawTSV Hartberg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Austria Vienna 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Austria Vienna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austria Vienna 46%, draw 28%, TSV Hartberg 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Austria Vienna v TSV HartbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Austria Vienna win46%

Draw28%

TSV Hartberg win27%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 16

VenueGenerali Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austria Vienna

TSV Hartberg

4Days since last match3

Last match: 23 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 24 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · austria vienna winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Austria Vienna a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Austria Vienna v TSV Hartberg~~1.58 – 1.16

~~Form · Cup this season · since 26 July~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austria Vienna win	46%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
TSV Hartberg win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Austria Vienna or draw	73%	–	–
Austria Vienna clean sheet	31%	–	–
TSV Hartberg clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 7.8 6.3 4.4 1 9.0 13.1 6.8 2.7 2 8.1 9.3 5.4 2.1 3 4.2 4.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Vienna down, TSV Hartberg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austria Vienna at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Austria Vienna, 1.16 for TSV Hartberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TSV 0–2 AUS · AUS 1–0 TSV · TSV 0–1 AUS · TSV 2–1 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 July

AUSTRIA VIENNA

WW5–0 · 6–0

TSV HARTBERG

WW3–1 · 4–0

Austria Vienna v TSV Hartberg

The match pulse

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Rest & schedule

Austria Vienna

TSV Hartberg

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Cup this season · since 26 July