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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Cup › Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz

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Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz

Austria Lustenau
17:00Upcoming
Sturm Graz

Cup · THU 29 OCT · Planet Pure Stadion

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Austria LustenauDrawSturm Graz
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Sturm Graz 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austria Lustenau 11%, draw 22%, Sturm Graz 67%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Austria Lustenau v Sturm GrazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Austria Lustenau win11%
Draw22%
Sturm Graz win67%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundRound of 16

VenuePlanet Pure Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austria Lustenau

Sturm Graz

5Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sturm graz winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
67% The market–
Us67%

We make Sturm Graz a 67% chance to win. The model expects 0.6–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Austria Lustenau v Sturm Graz0.64 – 1.89
Form · Cup this season · since 24 JulyW2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Austria Lustenau win11%––
Draw22%––
Sturm Graz win67%––
Over 2.5 goals46%––
Both teams to score40%––
Over 1.5 goals72%––
Over 3.5 goals25%––
Austria Lustenau or draw33%––
Austria Lustenau clean sheet15%––
Sturm Graz clean sheet53%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%
0123450 8.2 14.7 14.2 9.0 4.3 1 4.8 9.9 9.1 5.8 2.7 2 3.1 2.9 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Lustenau down, Sturm Graz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.50 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsSTU 1–1 AUS · STU 2–0 AUS · AUS 0–1 STU · AUS 0–2 STU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 24 July

AUSTRIA LUSTENAU

WW1–0 · 6–2

STURM GRAZ

WW3–0 · 4–1