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WSG Wattens v Ried

WSG Wattens

1–2Full time

Ried

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried WSG WATTENS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said WSG Wattens win~~39%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.673

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said WSG Wattens win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: WSG Wattens 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–26–34
2′KICK-OFF WSG Wattens v Ried
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' WSG Wattens 1–0 Ried
9′8′ and it is 1–0: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen on the scoresheet for WSG Wattens. 1–0 · 66–20–14
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' WSG Wattens 1–0 Ried · Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
13′We said WSG Wattens at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 66%. 1–0 · 66–20–14
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' WSG Wattens 1–1 Ried · Stefan Schwab
17′Ried ahead on 15′ through Stefan Schwab. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–29–33
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
19′⚽ GOAL · 8' WSG Wattens 1–1 Ried · Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
19′⚽ GOAL · 15' WSG Wattens 1–1 Ried · Stefan Schwab
40′WSG Wattens have had 7.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 34–36–30
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · Stefan Schwab
43′We said WSG Wattens at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 1–2 · 10–23–67
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · Philipp Pomer
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Ried win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was WSG Wattens win 10%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Marco Boras · WSG Wattens
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 35% now
45′SECOND HALF WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' WSG Wattens win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Ried win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was WSG Wattens win 10%)
46′HALF-TIME WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried
46′⚽ GOAL · 8' WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
46′⚽ GOAL · 15' WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · Stefan Schwab
46′⚽ GOAL · 43' WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · Philipp Pomer
46′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Marco Boras · WSG Wattens
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' WSG Wattens 1–3 Ried · Philipp Pomer
49′⚽ GOAL · 50' WSG Wattens 1–3 Ried · Evan Eghosa Aisowieren (assist Ante Bajic)
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' WSG Wattens · On: Murat Satin · Off: Thomas Goiginger Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ried · On: Oliver Sorg · Off: J. Rhodes Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ried · On: Lukas Malicsek · Off: Martin Rasner Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Andreas Leitner · Ried
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ried · On: Isaac Thelin · Off: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' WSG Wattens · On: Lukas Hinterseer · Off: M. Olakigbe Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' WSG Wattens · On: Thomas Sabitzer · Off: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer · Ried
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ried · On: Dejan Radonjic · Off: Philipp Pomer Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' WSG Wattens · On: David Kubatta · Off: Marc Striednig Corrected
FTFULL TIME WSG Wattens 1–2 Ried
FTWSG Wattens 1–2 Ried · WSG Wattens win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

WSG Wattens win39%

Draw28%

Ried win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Tivoli Stadion Tirol

Referee · Julian Weinberger

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

1 S. Hamzic

5 D. Murray

23 M. Boras

3 D. Gugganig

28 M. Oswald

6 M. Striednig

30 M. Taferner

18 H. Balic

36 T. Goiginger

17 M. Olakigbe

8 N. Baden Frederiksen

Coach · Philipp Semlic

Substitutes

13 · A. Eckmayr

27 · D. Jaunegg

14 · D. Kubatta

43 · N. Celic

11 · M. Satin

32 · R. Gschosser

16 · L. Hinterseer

37 · M. Wels

10 · T. Sabitzer

Ried

4-2-3-1

1 A. Leitner

18 F. Rossdorfer

28 S. Chukwudi

30 O. Steurer

17 P. Pomer

6 Y. Maart

8 M. Rasner

12 A. Bajic

22 S. Schwab

11 J. Rhodes

47 E. E. Aisowieren

Coach · Mario Despotovic

Substitutes

77 · F. Wimmer

7 · O. Sorg

5 · D. Radonjic

29 · L. Capan

4 · L. Malicsek

10 · J. Nasrawe

92 · I. Kiese

19 · T. Lund-Jensen

15 · J. Boguo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

1 S. Hamzic

5 D. Murray

23 M. Boras

3 D. Gugganig

28 M. Oswald

6 M. Striednig

30 M. Taferner

18 H. Balic

36 T. Goiginger

17 M. Olakigbe

8 N. Baden Frederiksen

Coach · Philipp Semlic

Substitutes

13 · A. Eckmayr

27 · D. Jaunegg

14 · D. Kubatta

43 · N. Celic

11 · M. Satin

32 · R. Gschosser

16 · L. Hinterseer

37 · M. Wels

10 · T. Sabitzer

Ried

4-2-3-1

1 A. Leitner

18 F. Rossdorfer

28 S. Chukwudi

30 O. Steurer

17 P. Pomer

6 Y. Maart

8 M. Rasner

12 A. Bajic

22 S. Schwab

11 J. Rhodes

47 E. E. Aisowieren

Coach · Mario Despotovic

Substitutes

77 · F. Wimmer

7 · O. Sorg

5 · D. Radonjic

29 · L. Capan

4 · L. Malicsek

10 · J. Nasrawe

92 · I. Kiese

19 · T. Lund-Jensen

15 · J. Boguo

Our number · wsg wattens winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

39% The market38%

Us39%

~~Market~~38%

We make WSG Wattens a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wsg wattens win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
WSG Wattens win	39%	38%	+1
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Ried win	33%	36%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	57%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
WSG Wattens or draw	67%	64%	+2
WSG Wattens clean sheet	27%	–	–
Ried clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 7.7 7.1 5.5 2.4 1 7.9 13.3 7.9 3.5 2 6.6 8.6 5.7 2.5 3 3.2 4.1 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+WSG Wattens down, Ried across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,017 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.92 goals a meeting; 5 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

WSG Wattens at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ried away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for WSG Wattens, 1.32 for Ried. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.92

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 12

~~Both scored~~8 of 12

~~Last meetings~~WSG 1–0 RIE · RIE 2–1 WSG · WSG 1–1 RIE · RIE 2–0 WSG

Form · last six in Bundesliga

WSG WATTENS

LLWWDL1–3 · 0–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

RIED

LLWLDW1–2 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	7	+14	17
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	−1	11
5	Ried	7	−1	8
6	TSV Hartberg	7	−3	8
7	WSG Wattens	7	−3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	−3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	−10	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	−6	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3