WSG Wattens v Grazer AK prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

WSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AK WSG WATTENS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said WSG Wattens win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said WSG Wattens win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF WSG Wattens v Grazer AK
2′Little has changed for our model: WSG Wattens 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–28–29
9′We said WSG Wattens at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–57
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' WSG Wattens 0–1 Grazer AK
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Grazer AK win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was WSG Wattens win 43%)
10′Grazer AK score on 9′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–22–57
15′We said WSG Wattens at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–13–80
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' WSG Wattens 0–2 Grazer AK
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 7% now
16′Grazer AK ahead on 15′ through Leon Klassen. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–13–80
18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 18' Grazer AK
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
36′We said WSG Wattens at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Grazer AK · On: Tim Trummer · Off: Anderson Dos Santos Gomes
45′SUBSTITUTION · 44' Grazer AK · On: Christian Lichtenberger · Off: Jacob Italiano
45′SECOND HALF WSG Wattens 0–1 Grazer AK
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' WSG Wattens · On: Drew murray · Off: David Gugganig
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Tim Trummer · Grazer AK
50′HALF-TIME WSG Wattens 0–1 Grazer AK
57′WSG Wattens have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–69
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' WSG Wattens · On: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen · Off: Husein Balić
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' WSG Wattens · On: Lukas Hinterseer · Off: Moritz Wels
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' WSG Wattens · On: M. Olakigbe · Off: Murat Satin Corrected
64′We said WSG Wattens at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–52–21
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' WSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AK
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 27% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Grazer AK win 73%)
65′WSG Wattens level it on 63′ through Nikolai Baden Frederiksen. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–53–20
66′12 shots for WSG Wattens, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 26–54–20
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Leon Klassen · Grazer AK
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Grazer AK · On: Souleyman mandey · Off: Mark Große
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
91′We said WSG Wattens at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' WSG Wattens win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
92′WSG Wattens have had 17 attempts to 12 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 3–94–3
FTFULL TIME WSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AK
FTWSG Wattens 1–1 Grazer AK · WSG Wattens win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

WSG Wattens are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: WSG Wattens 44%, draw 27%, Grazer AK 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on WSG Wattens v Grazer AKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

WSG Wattens win44%

Draw27%

Grazer AK win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueTivoli Stadion Tirol

RefereeStefan Macanovic

Line-ups

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

Grazer AK

3-1-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

WSG Wattens

Grazer AK

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	WSG Wattens	9	−2	11
9	Grazer AK	9	−15	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

1 S. Hamzić

14 D. Kubatta

23 M. Boras

3 D. Gugganig

28 M. Oswald

6 Marc Striednig

30 M. Taferner

18 H. Balić

36 T. Goiginger

37 M. Wels

11 M. Şatin

Coach · P. Semlic

Substitutes

43 · N. Čelić

13 · A. Eckmayr

32 · Raphael Gschösser

16 · L. Hinterseer

27 · D. Jaunegg

5 · D. Murray

17 · M. Olakigbe

10 · T. Sabitzer

8 · N. Frederiksen

Grazer AK

3-1-4-2

23 C. Stanković

3 L. Vraa-Jensen

21 M. Sollbauer

27 Y. Oberleitner

24 C. Cvetko

28 Anderson

14 J. Italiano

34 P. Michorl

32 L. Klassen

11 M. Große

25 A. Hofleitner

Coach · G. Scheiblehner

Substitutes

10 · C. Lichtenberger

9 · D. Maderner

17 · S. Mandey

72 · Petar Markovic

26 · C. Nicht

7 · A. Smits

37 · T. Trummer

8 · T. Koch

48 · M. Gragger

Our number · wsg wattens winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make WSG Wattens a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · WSG Wattens v Grazer AK~~1.58 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~6 v 9

~~The market · WSG Wattens win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · WSG Wattens win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
WSG Wattens win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Grazer AK win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+3
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	32%	30%	+2
WSG Wattens or draw	71%	70%	+1
WSG Wattens clean sheet	29%	–	–
Grazer AK clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 7.3 6.1 4.6 1 8.0 12.9 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.1 5.7 2.4 3 3.9 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+WSG Wattens down, Grazer AK across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,030 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Grazer AK away: 1.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for WSG Wattens, 1.25 for Grazer AK. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GRA 4–0 WSG · WSG 1–5 GRA · WSG 2–0 GRA · GRA 1–1 WSG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug

WSG WATTENS

WWDLLW4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0

GRAZER AK

LDWDDL0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	WSG Wattens	9	−2	11
7	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
8	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
9	Grazer AK	9	−15	9
10	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	−11	5