Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Wolfsberger AC 0–2 WSG Wattens WOLFSBERGER AC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wolfsberger AC win~~51%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.907

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wolfsberger AC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wolfsberger AC 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–24
1′KICK-OFF Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Dominik Fitz · Wolfsberger AC
37′WSG Wattens have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 43–34–23
39′We said Wolfsberger AC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–26–57
39′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 17–26–57
39′38′: Moritz Wels on the scoresheet for WSG Wattens, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 17–26–57
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Wolfsberger AC 0–1 WSG Wattens
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Wolfsberger AC win: 51% at kick-off, 17% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' WSG Wattens win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Wolfsberger AC win 17%)
45′HALF-TIME Wolfsberger AC 0–1 WSG Wattens
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Wolfsberger AC win: 51% at kick-off, 15% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' WSG Wattens · On: Thomas Sabitzer · Off: Nikolai Baden Frederiksen
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: David Đurić · Off: Aaron Sky Schwarz
46′We said Wolfsberger AC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: Sankara William Karamoko · Off: Phillip Verhounig
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: Luca Hassler · Off: Marco Schabauer
46′SECOND HALF Wolfsberger AC 0–1 WSG Wattens
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Marco Alessandro Sulzner · Wolfsberger AC
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+9' Wolfsberger AC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Wolfsberger AC win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
59′We said Wolfsberger AC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' David Gugganig · WSG Wattens
60′We said Wolfsberger AC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Wolfsberger AC 0–2 WSG Wattens
61′WSG Wattens ahead on 60′ through David Kubatta. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–92
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Wolfsberger AC win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' WSG Wattens · On: Murat Satin · Off: Thomas Goiginger
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' WSG Wattens · On: Raphael Gschosser · Off: M. Olakigbe Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wolfsberger AC · On: Raffael Behounek · Off: Marco Alessandro Sulzner
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Wolfsberger AC · On: Markus Pink · Off: Giacomo Vrioni
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Alexander Eckmayr · WSG Wattens
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Marc Striednig · WSG Wattens
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' WSG Wattens · On: Lukas Hinterseer · Off: Moritz Wels
FTFULL TIME Wolfsberger AC 0–2 WSG Wattens
FTWolfsberger AC 0–2 WSG Wattens · Wolfsberger AC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wolfsberger AC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wolfsberger AC 51%, draw 26%, WSG Wattens 24%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Wolfsberger AC v WSG WattensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wolfsberger AC win51%

Draw26%

WSG Wattens win24%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueLavanttal-Arena

RefereeIsa Simsek

Line-ups

Wolfsberger AC

4-1-3-2

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wolfsberger AC

WSG Wattens

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wolfsberger AC

4-1-3-2

12 L. Gliklich

31 F. Wohlmuth

15 Cheikh Mamadou Diabaté

25 Adama Dramé

11 A. Schwarz

30 M. Sulzner

17 Marco Schabauer

36 D. Fitz

34 E. Agyemang

9 G. Vrioni

23 P. Verhounig

Coach · T. Silberberger

Substitutes

10 · D. Avdijaj

6 · R. Behounek

1 · L. Gütlbauer

7 · L. Hassler

49 · S. Karamoko

35 · Matteo Kitz

32 · M. Pink

20 · T. Schriebl

70 · David Đurić

WSG Wattens

4-2-3-1

1 S. Hamzić

23 M. Boras

14 D. Kubatta

3 D. Gugganig

28 M. Oswald

30 M. Taferner

6 Marc Striednig

36 T. Goiginger

37 M. Wels

17 M. Olakigbe

8 N. Frederiksen

Coach · P. Semlic

Substitutes

5 · D. Murray

10 · T. Sabitzer

11 · M. Şatin

27 · D. Jaunegg

16 · L. Hinterseer

32 · Raphael Gschösser

13 · A. Eckmayr

43 · N. Čelić

18 · H. Balić

Our number · wolfsberger ac winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market34%

Us51%

~~Market~~34%

We make Wolfsberger AC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wolfsberger AC v WSG Wattens~~1.79 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 8~~12 v 8

~~The market · Wolfsberger AC win~~34% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wolfsberger AC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wolfsberger AC win	51%	34%	+17
Draw	26%	28%	−2
WSG Wattens win	24%	38%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	77%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	35%	−1
Wolfsberger AC or draw	76%	62%	+14
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet	31%	–	–
WSG Wattens clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.5 4.9 3.6 1 8.2 12.1 6.3 2.4 2 8.3 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 5.0 5.7 3.3 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wolfsberger AC down, WSG Wattens across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,026 Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). WSG Wattens away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Wolfsberger AC, 1.16 for WSG Wattens. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WOL 2–0 WSG · WSG 3–1 WOL · WOL 0–0 WSG · WSG 1–1 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

WOLFSBERGER AC

LDLLLL1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–3

WSG WATTENS

LWWDLL0–3 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
3	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
4	Ried	9	+1	14
5	Sturm Graz	8	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
7	Grazer AK	8	−10	9
8	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
9	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
10	Austria Vienna	9	−9	7
11	SCR Altach	8	−4	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	−9	5