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TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC

TSV Hartberg
1–0Full time
Wolfsberger AC

Bundesliga · SAT 24 OCT · Profertil Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45
TSV Hartberg 1–0 Wolfsberger AC TSV HARTBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said TSV Hartberg win41%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.521
The market’s Brier score0.388

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said TSV Hartberg win at 41%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: TSV Hartberg 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
  3. 2′KICK-OFF TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC
  4. 37′8 shots for TSV Hartberg, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 36–35–29
  5. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was TSV Hartberg win 36%)
  6. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' TSV Hartberg win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
  7. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–44–25
  8. 58′We said TSV Hartberg at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
  9. 58′TSV Hartberg have had 15 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 29–47–24
  10. 61′16 shots for TSV Hartberg, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 28–49–23
  11. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' TSV Hartberg · On: Tobias Kainz · Off: Jonas Karner
  12. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' TSV Hartberg · On: Andrija Radulovic · Off: Benjamin Markus
  13. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Wolfsberger AC · On: Matteo Kitz · Off: Sankara William Karamoko
  14. 67′We said TSV Hartberg at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–20
  15. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' TSV Hartberg win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
  16. 74′We said TSV Hartberg at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–16
  17. 75′20 shots for TSV Hartberg, 6 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 19–66–16
  18. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wolfsberger AC · On: Emanuel Agyeman · Off: Dominik Fitz
  19. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Wolfsberger AC · On: Phillip Verhounig · Off: Giacomo Vrioni
  20. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' TSV Hartberg · On: Oliver Lukic · Off: Nikolaus Feldhofer
  21. 80′We said TSV Hartberg at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–12
  22. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' TSV Hartberg win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  23. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wolfsberger AC · On: Marco Schabauer · Off: Simon Piesinger
  24. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wolfsberger AC · On: Luca Hassler · Off: Aaron Sky Schwarz
  25. 84′We said TSV Hartberg at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  26. 85′We said TSV Hartberg at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–0 · 93–7–0
  27. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' TSV Hartberg · On: Augustín Urrutia · Off: Youba Diarra
  28. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' TSV Hartberg 1–0 Wolfsberger AC
  29. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' TSV Hartberg win: 41% at kick-off, 93% now
  30. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' TSV Hartberg win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 85%)
  31. 86′Konstantin Schopp scores for TSV Hartberg on 85′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  32. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' TSV Hartberg win: 41% at kick-off, 94% now
  33. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' TSV Hartberg · On: Jed Drew · Off: Magnus Dalpiaz
  34. 88′We said TSV Hartberg at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  35. FTFULL TIME TSV Hartberg 1–0 Wolfsberger AC
  36. FTTSV Hartberg 1–0 Wolfsberger AC · TSV Hartberg win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

TSV Hartberg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: TSV Hartberg 41%, draw 27%, Wolfsberger AC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger ACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

TSV Hartberg win41%
Draw27%
Wolfsberger AC win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueProfertil Arena

RefereeJosef Spurny

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg

Wolfsberger AC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

TSV Hartberg

Wolfsberger AC

8Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7TSV Hartberg9−411
12Wolfsberger AC9−115

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg

Formation not confirmed

6 Habib Coulibaly

91 Á. Pécsi

4 B. Markuš

14 P. Komposch

17 J. Karner

22 M. Hoffman

7 A. Gattermayer

95 Nikolaus Feldhofer

5 Y. Diarra

16 M. Dalpiaz

27 K. Schopp

Coach · M. Schopp

Substitutes

20 · Paul Bratschko

11 · J. Drew

23 · T. Kainz

10 · O. Lukic

21 · L. Marić

2 · L. Pazourek

49 · A. Radulović

19 · L. Spendlhofer

9 · A. Urrutia

Wolfsberger AC

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Gliklich

10 D. Avdijaj

6 R. Behounek

15 Cheikh Mamadou Diabaté

36 D. Fitz

49 S. Karamoko

8 S. Piesinger

11 A. Schwarz

30 M. Sulzner

31 F. Wohlmuth

9 G. Vrioni

Coach · M. Schmid

Substitutes

25 · Adama Dramé

1 · L. Gütlbauer

7 · L. Hassler

35 · Matteo Kitz

32 · M. Pink

17 · Marco Schabauer

20 · T. Schriebl

23 · P. Verhounig

34 · E. Agyemang

Our number · tsv hartberg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
41% The market49%
Us41%
Market49%

We make TSV Hartberg a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · TSV Hartberg v Wolfsberger AC1.53 – 1.31
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 AugW3 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 11 v 57 v 12
The market · TSV Hartberg win49% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 15:04
Our probability · TSV Hartberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
TSV Hartberg win41%49%−8
Draw27%25%+2
Wolfsberger AC win31%26%+5
Over 2.5 goals54%58%−4
Both teams to score58%60%−2
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals32%37%−5
TSV Hartberg or draw69%74%−5
TSV Hartberg clean sheet27%––
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%
0123450 7.2 6.4 5.0 2.2 1 7.7 12.9 7.6 3.4 2 6.8 8.9 5.8 2.6 3 3.5 4.5 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+TSV Hartberg down, Wolfsberger AC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsWOL 1–2 TSV · TSV 2–2 WOL · WOL 1–0 TSV · TSV 0–3 WOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

TSV HARTBERG

WWDDWL2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 4–3 · 1–3

WOLFSBERGER AC

DLLLLL0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rapid Vienna9+1824
2Red Bull Salzburg9+1721
3Lask Linz9+1419
4Sturm Graz9+617
5Ried9+114
6WSG Wattens9−211
7TSV Hartberg9−411
8SCR Altach10−69
9Grazer AK9−159
10Austria Lustenau9−88
11Austria Vienna10−107
12Wolfsberger AC9−115

The competition's standings before kick-off.