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TSV Hartberg v Austria Lustenau

TSV Hartberg
4–3Full time
Austria Lustenau

Bundesliga · SUN 11 OCT · Profertil Arena

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04
TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau TSV HARTBERG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said TSV Hartberg win51%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.367
The market’s Brier score0.552

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 42 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said TSV Hartberg win at 51%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: TSV Hartberg 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
  3. 4′Little has changed for our model: TSV Hartberg 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–24
  4. 8′TSV Hartberg ahead on 8′ through Marco Hoffmann. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
  5. 9′TSV Hartberg ahead on 8′ through Marco Hoffmann. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–9
  6. 10′We said TSV Hartberg at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  7. 11′Albin Gashi scores for Austria Lustenau on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
  8. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
  9. 18′Albin Gashi scores for Austria Lustenau on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 48–28–24
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
  11. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
  12. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 48% now
  13. 42′43′ and it is 1–1: Dominik Weixelbraun on the scoresheet for Austria Lustenau. 1–1 · 42–36–22
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 43' TSV Hartberg 1–1 Austria Lustenau · Dominik Weixelbraun
  15. 44′43′ and it is 1–2: Dominik Weixelbraun on the scoresheet for Austria Lustenau. 1–2 · 15–26–59
  16. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' TSV Hartberg 1–2 Austria Lustenau · Dominik Weixelbraun
  17. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 15% now
  18. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Austria Lustenau win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was TSV Hartberg win 15%)
  19. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 42% now
  20. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' TSV Hartberg win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Austria Lustenau win 22%)
  21. 45′We said TSV Hartberg at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–59
  22. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 15% now
  23. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Austria Lustenau win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was TSV Hartberg win 15%)
  24. 45′HALF-TIME TSV Hartberg 1–2 Austria Lustenau
  25. 45′SECOND HALF TSV Hartberg 1–2 Austria Lustenau
  26. 46′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 14–26–59
  27. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
  28. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Austria Lustenau win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was TSV Hartberg win 14%)
  29. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
  30. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Austria Lustenau win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was TSV Hartberg win 14%)
  31. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' TSV Hartberg win: 51% at kick-off, 14% now
  32. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Austria Lustenau win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was TSV Hartberg win 14%)
  33. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria Lustenau · Dominik Weixelbraun
  34. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria Lustenau · Marco Hoffmann
  35. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' TSV Hartberg · On: Tobias Kainz · Off: Benjamin Markus Corrected
  36. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' TSV Hartberg · On: Andrija Radulovic · Off: Angelo Gattermayer Corrected
  37. 59′⚽ GOAL · 60' TSV Hartberg 2–2 Austria Lustenau · Nikolaus Feldhofer
  38. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' TSV Hartberg 3–2 Austria Lustenau · Marco Hoffmann
  39. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' TSV Hartberg 3–2 Austria Lustenau · Nikolaus Feldhofer
  40. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' TSV Hartberg 3–2 Austria Lustenau · Nikolaus Feldhofer
  41. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Lustenau · On: Alieu Conateh · Off: Lord Afrifa Corrected
  42. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Lustenau · On: Lenn Jastremski · Off: Antonio Verinac Corrected
  43. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Lustenau · On: Matthias Maak · Off: Albin Gashi Corrected
  44. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Lustenau · On: Anilson Dourado Santiado · Off: Danilo Soares Corrected
  45. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Austria Lustenau · On: Pius Grabher · Off: Seydou Diarra Corrected
  46. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' TSV Hartberg · On: Habib Coulibaly · Off: Manuel Pfeifer Corrected
  47. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' TSV Hartberg · On: Oliver Lukic · Off: Nikolaus Feldhofer Corrected
  48. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Pius Grabher · Austria Lustenau
  49. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' TSV Hartberg 4–2 Austria Lustenau · Nikolaus Feldhofer
  50. 86′⚽ GOAL · 86' TSV Hartberg 4–2 Austria Lustenau · Marco Hoffmann
  51. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' TSV Hartberg · On: Lukas Spendlhofer · Off: Jed Drew Corrected
  52. 92′⚽ GOAL · 92' TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau · Marco Hoffmann
  53. 92′⚽ GOAL · 93' TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau · Dominik Weixelbraun
  54. FTFULL TIME TSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau
  55. FTTSV Hartberg 4–3 Austria Lustenau · TSV Hartberg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

TSV Hartberg win51%
Draw26%
Austria Lustenau win23%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueProfertil Arena

RefereeMarkus Greinecker

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg

4-4-2

Austria Lustenau

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

TSV Hartberg

Austria Lustenau

21Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7TSV Hartberg7−38
8Austria Lustenau7−38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

TSV Hartberg

4-4-2

91 A. Pecsi

16 M. Dalpiaz

27 K. Schopp

14 P. Komposch

12 M. Pfeifer

11 J. Drew

4 B. Markus

5 Y. Diarra

95 N. Feldhofer

7 A. Gattermayer

22 M. Hoffmann

Coach · Markus Schopp

Substitutes

21 · L. Maric

19 · L. Spendlhofer

6 · H. Coulibaly

23 · T. Kainz

10 · O. Lukic

17 · J. Karner

49 · A. Radulovic

77 · D. Korherr

70 · C. Onuoha

Austria Lustenau

4-1-4-1

27 D. Schierl

7 F. Gmeiner

18 R. Voisine

29 N. Pertlwieser

3 Danilo Soares

8 D. Kacuri

11 D. Weixelbraun

20 L. Afrifa

17 A. Gashi

24 S. Diarra

39 A. Verinac

Coach · Markus Mader

Substitutes

30 · P. Bohm

31 · M. Maak

21 · Anilson

26 · L. Ibertsberger

23 · P. Grabher

61 · H. Ismailcebioglu

9 · L. Jastremski

14 · P. Benjamin

10 · A. Conateh

Our number · tsv hartberg winPublished 11 Oct 13:43
51% The market39%
Us51%
Market39%

We make TSV Hartberg a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 13:17
Our probability · tsv hartberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
TSV Hartberg win51%39%+11
Draw26%27%−1
Austria Lustenau win23%34%−11
Over 2.5 goals53%54%−1
Both teams to score55%58%−2
Over 1.5 goals78%76%+2
Over 3.5 goals31%33%−2
TSV Hartberg or draw77%66%+11
TSV Hartberg clean sheet34%––
Austria Lustenau clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.4 5.4 3.6 1 9.1 12.5 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.6 5.2 3 5.1 5.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+TSV Hartberg down, Austria Lustenau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsAUS 0–4 TSV · TSV 2–2 AUS · AUS 5–1 TSV · TSV 0–1 AUS

Form · last six in Bundesliga

TSV HARTBERG

LLWWDD0–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 3–3

AUSTRIA LUSTENAU

LWDLLW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rapid Vienna7+1418
2Red Bull Salzburg8+1418
3Lask Linz7+1216
4Sturm Graz8+114
5Ried8011
6Grazer AK8−109
7TSV Hartberg7−38
8Austria Lustenau7−38
9WSG Wattens8−48
10Austria Vienna8−87
11Wolfsberger AC7−65
12SCR Altach7−73

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.