Sturm Graz v Ried prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sturm GrazDrawRied

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Sturm Graz 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sturm Graz 62%, draw 23%, Ried 15%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Sturm Graz v RiedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sturm Graz win62%

Draw23%

Ried win15%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion Graz-Liebenau

RefereeSafak Barmaksiz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sturm Graz

Ried

3Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sturm graz winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market55%

Us62%

~~Market~~55%

We make Sturm Graz a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sturm Graz v Ried~~2.05 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 14~~4 v 5

~~The market · Sturm Graz win~~55% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sturm Graz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sturm Graz win	62%	55%	+7
Draw	23%	23%	0
Ried win	15%	22%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	61%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Sturm Graz or draw	85%	78%	+7
Sturm Graz clean sheet	39%	–	–
Ried clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 6.2 3.7 2.2 1 9.3 10.7 4.5 2 10.6 9.8 4.6 3 7.3 6.7 3.1 4 3.8 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sturm Graz down, Ried across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sturm Graz at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ried away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Sturm Graz, 0.94 for Ried. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STU 1–0 RIE · RIE 1–3 STU · RIE 1–3 STU · STU 2–1 RIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug

STURM GRAZ

DLWLWW1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 6–1

RIED

WLDWWW1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	WSG Wattens	9	−2	11
7	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
8	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
9	Grazer AK	9	−15	9
10	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	−11	5