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Sturm Graz v Grazer AK

Sturm Graz
6–1Full time
Grazer AK

Bundesliga · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion Graz-Liebenau

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK STURM GRAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sturm Graz win64%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.194
The market’s Brier score0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay22 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sturm Graz win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sturm Graz was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–22–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sturm Graz v Grazer AK
  4. 9′We said Sturm Graz at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–1 · 38–24–38
  5. 9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Sturm Graz 0–1 Grazer AK
  6. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 10′A goal for Grazer AK on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 38–24–38
  8. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Grazer AK win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sturm Graz win 35%)
  9. 18′We said Sturm Graz at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–26–40
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  11. 28′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Sturm Graz · On: Ammar Helac · Off: Daniil Khudyakov
  12. 29′We said Sturm Graz at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–27–43
  13. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 29–28–44
  14. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Sturm Graz 1–1 Grazer AK
  15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  16. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Sturm Graz win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Grazer AK win 15%)
  17. 38′37′: Luca Weinhandl on the scoresheet for Sturm Graz, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 53–31–15
  18. 38′We published Sturm Graz at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–12–3
  19. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Sturm Graz 2–1 Grazer AK
  20. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
  21. 39′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 85–12–3
  22. 39′Sturm Graz ahead on 39′ through Jurgen Heil. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–12–3
  23. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 85% now
  24. 40′We published Sturm Graz at 64%. Our model now makes it 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  25. 40′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–3–0
  26. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Sturm Graz 3–1 Grazer AK
  27. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sturm Graz win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
  28. 42′Oumar Diakité scores for Sturm Graz on 41′. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  29. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sturm Graz 4–1 Grazer AK
  30. 43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Sturm Graz
  31. 45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45+7' Joshua Quarshie · Sturm Graz
  32. 45′HALF-TIME Sturm Graz 3–1 Grazer AK
  33. 45′SECOND HALF Sturm Graz 3–1 Grazer AK
  34. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Grazer AK · On: Mark Große · Off: Christian Lichtenberger
  35. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Grazer AK · On: Tim Trummer · Off: Anderson Dos Santos Gomes
  36. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sturm Graz 4–1 Grazer AK
  37. 50′49′: Oumar Diakité on the scoresheet for Sturm Graz, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  38. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Mark Große · Grazer AK
  39. 51′We published Sturm Graz at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  40. 51′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  41. 51′6 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  42. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sturm Graz 4–1 Grazer AK
  43. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Sturm Graz 5–1 Grazer AK
  44. 52′45′: Joshua Quarshie on the scoresheet for Sturm Graz, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  45. 52′Sturm Graz ahead on 51′ through Oumar Diakité. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  46. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Oumar Diakité · Sturm Graz
  47. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Alexander Hofleitner · Grazer AK
  48. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sturm Graz · On: Szymon Wlodarczyk · Off: Oumar Diakité
  49. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sturm Graz · On: Jacob Peter Hödl · Off: Joshua Quarshie
  50. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sturm Graz · On: Albert Vallci · Off: Luis Balbo
  51. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sturm Graz · On: Julian Halwachs · Off: Luca Weinhandl
  52. 74′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  53. 74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK
  54. 75′Jon Gorenc Stanković scores for Sturm Graz on 75′ — 6–1. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  55. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Grazer AK · On: Tobias Koch · Off: Christopher Cvetko
  56. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Grazer AK · On: Daniel Maderner · Off: Leon Klassen Corrected
  57. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Julian Halwachs · Sturm Graz
  58. 92′Full time, 6–1. We called Sturm Graz at 64% — that one lands. 6–1 · 100–0–0
  59. FTFULL TIME Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK
  60. FTSturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK · Sturm Graz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sturm Graz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sturm Graz 64%, draw 22%, Grazer AK 14%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sturm Graz v Grazer AKBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sturm Graz win64%
Draw22%
Grazer AK win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion Graz-Liebenau

RefereeJulian Weinberger

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

3-4-2-1

Grazer AK

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sturm Graz

Grazer AK

3Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Sturm Graz8+114
7Grazer AK8−109

In the news

from the pressAll ›
Evanilson shocks Sturm Graz to spark Bournemouth’s first home win in EuropeThe Guardian · · Sturm Graz, Bournemouth Bournemouth v Sturm Graz, Benfica v Celtic, and more: Europa League – liveThe Guardian · · Bournemouth, Sturm Graz, Benfica, Celtic, Europa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sturm Graz

3-4-2-1

53 D. Khudyakov

23 A. Malic

2 J. Quarshie

30 P. Koller

28 J. Heil

39 Luca Weinhandl

4 J. Gorenc Stankovič

27 L. Balbo

19 S. Seidl

78 V. Matoshi

14 O. Diakité

Coach · F. Ingolitsch

Substitutes

21 · P. Petrović

11 · A. Kayombo

43 · Jacob Peter Hödl

22 · A. Helac

40 · J. Halwachs

35 · N. Geyrhofer

26 · B. Beganović

5 · A. Vallci

17 · S. Włodarczyk

Grazer AK

3-4-2-1

23 C. Stanković

27 Y. Oberleitner

21 M. Sollbauer

82 B. Owusu

28 Anderson

34 P. Michorl

24 C. Cvetko

32 L. Klassen

14 J. Italiano

10 C. Lichtenberger

25 A. Hofleitner

Coach · G. Scheiblehner

Substitutes

3 · L. Vraa-Jensen

48 · M. Gragger

11 · M. Große

8 · T. Koch

9 · D. Maderner

17 · S. Mandey

72 · Petar Markovic

26 · C. Nicht

37 · T. Trummer

Our number · sturm graz winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
64% The market52%
Us64%
Market52%

We make Sturm Graz a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sturm Graz v Grazer AK2.11 – 0.88
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 AugW3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 14 v 95 v 7
The market · Sturm Graz win52% · ours 64%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 12 OCT 03:5918 OCT 15:35
Our probability · Sturm Graz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 56% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sturm Graz win64%52%+12
Draw22%25%−3
Grazer AK win14%23%−9
Over 2.5 goals57%55%+2
Both teams to score52%58%−6
Over 1.5 goals81%78%+3
Over 3.5 goals35%35%0
Sturm Graz or draw86%77%+9
Sturm Graz clean sheet42%––
Grazer AK clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.1%
0123450 6.2 3.5 2.0 1 9.6 10.4 4.1 2 11.1 9.7 4.3 3 7.8 6.8 3.0 4 4.2 3.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sturm Graz down, Grazer AK across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsSTU 2–1 GRA · GRA 0–3 STU · GRA 1–2 STU · STU 5–2 GRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

STURM GRAZ

WDLWLW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

GRAZER AK

LLDWDD0–8 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rapid Vienna9+1824
2Lask Linz9+1419
3Red Bull Salzburg8+1418
4Ried9+114
5Sturm Graz8+114
6TSV Hartberg9−411
7Grazer AK8−109
8WSG Wattens8−48
9Austria Lustenau9−88
10Austria Vienna9−97
11SCR Altach8−46
12Wolfsberger AC8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.