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SCR Altach v Wolfsberger AC

SCR Altach

3–0Full time

Wolfsberger AC

Bundesliga · SUN 11 OCT · Cashpoint Arena

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

SCR Altach 3–0 Wolfsberger AC WOLFSBERGER AC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wolfsberger AC win~~39%

~~The market said~~27%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.720

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wolfsberger AC win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Wolfsberger AC was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
4′Much as we predicted: Wolfsberger AC was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 32–28–40
6′SCR Altach find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
9′We said Wolfsberger AC at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 61–23–17
10′SCR Altach ahead on 6′ through Ousmane Diawara. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–23–16
12′We said Wolfsberger AC at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 61–23–16
15′Benjamin·Bockle scores for SCR Altach on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 85–11–5
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
17′We said Wolfsberger AC at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 5%. 2–0 · 85–11–5
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
19′Benjamin·Bockle scores for SCR Altach on 13′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 85–10–4
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 16% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 5% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 4% now
21′We said Wolfsberger AC at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
23′We said Wolfsberger AC at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 86–10–4
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Patrick Greil · SCR Altach
45′A red card for Wolfsberger AC on 44′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 91–7–2
45′🟥 RED CARD · 44' Cheick Mamadou Diabate · Wolfsberger AC
45′HALF-TIME SCR Altach 2–0 Wolfsberger AC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Wolfsberger AC win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' SCR Altach win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Wolfsberger AC win 2%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: Sankara William Karamoko · Off: Phillip Verhounig Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: Matteo Kitz · Off: Raffael Behounek Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Wolfsberger AC · On: Adama Dramé · Off: Donis Avdijaj Corrected
46′SECOND HALF SCR Altach 2–0 Wolfsberger AC
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' SCR Altach 3–0 Wolfsberger AC · Benjamin·Bockle
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' SCR Altach 3–0 Wolfsberger AC · Ousmane Diawara (assist Patrick Greil)
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Dominik Fitz · Wolfsberger AC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Wolfsberger AC · On: Marco Schabauer · Off: Dominik Fitz Corrected
62′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Mike Steven Bähre · SCR Altach
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' SCR Altach 3–1 Wolfsberger AC · Ousmane Diawara
67′⚽ GOAL · 66' SCR Altach 3–1 Wolfsberger AC · Sankara William Karamoko
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SCR Altach · On: Vesel Demaku · Off: Rodney Elongo-Yombo Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SCR Altach · On: Denizcan Cosgun · Off: Patrick Greil Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Marco Schabauer · Wolfsberger AC
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Wolfsberger AC · On: Giacomo Vrioni · Off: Marco Alessandro Sulzner Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SCR Altach · On: Johannes Naschberger · Off: Niklas Niehoff Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' SCR Altach · On: srdan hristic · Off: Ousmane Diawara Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' SCR Altach · On: Adrian Magnus Vonbrül · Off: Yann massombo Corrected
FTFULL TIME SCR Altach 3–0 Wolfsberger AC
FTSCR Altach 3–0 Wolfsberger AC · Wolfsberger AC win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

SCR Altach win31%

Draw30%

Wolfsberger AC win39%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueCashpoint Arena

RefereeJakob Semler

Line-ups

SCR Altach

3-5-2

Wolfsberger AC

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

SCR Altach

Wolfsberger AC

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SCR Altach

3-5-2

1 D. Stojanovic

23 B. Zech

27 F. Milojevic

17 L. Jager

29 N. Niehoff

28 Y. Massombo

8 M. Bahre

18 P. Greil

37 B. Bockle

39 R. Elongo-Yombo

10 O. Diawara

Coach · Ognjen Zaric

Substitutes

31 · D. Antosch

21 · J. Brandtner

16 · R. Rahmani

7 · D. Cosgun

22 · Y. Eisschill

6 · V. Demaku

14 · J. Naschberger

34 · A. Vonbrul

19 · S. Hrstic

Wolfsberger AC

3-4-2-1

1 L. Gutlbauer

8 S. Piesinger

6 R. Behounek

15 C. Diabate

31 F. Wohlmuth

30 M. Sulzner

20 T. Schriebl

77 R. Renner

36 D. Fitz

10 D. Avdijaj

23 P. Verhounig

Coach · Thomas Silberberger

Substitutes

12 · L. Gliklich

70 · D. Djuric

35 · M. Kitz

25 · A. Drame

17 · M. Schabauer

9 · G. Vrioni

11 · A. Schwarz

32 · M. Pink

49 · S. Karamoko

Our number · wolfsberger ac winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

39% The market27%

Us39%

~~Market~~27%

We make Wolfsberger AC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 27%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wolfsberger ac win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SCR Altach win	31%	48%	−17
Draw	30%	25%	+5
Wolfsberger AC win	39%	27%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	44%	59%	−15
Both teams to score	50%	61%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	71%	79%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	23%	38%	−15
SCR Altach or draw	61%	73%	−12
SCR Altach clean sheet	27%	–	–
Wolfsberger AC clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 10.3 10.0 7.5 3.3 1 8.5 14.3 8.3 3.6 2 5.7 7.3 4.7 2.0 3 2.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SCR Altach down, Wolfsberger AC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

16 previous meetings, 2.31 goals a meeting; 6 of 16 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SCR Altach at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Wolfsberger AC away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for SCR Altach, 1.30 for Wolfsberger AC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

16 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.31

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 16

~~Both scored~~7 of 16

~~Last meetings~~SCR 1–4 WOL · WOL 1–1 SCR · SCR 3–1 WOL · WOL 0–2 SCR

Form · last six in Bundesliga

SCR ALTACH

WLLLLL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

WOLFSBERGER AC

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	8	+1	14
5	Ried	8	0	11
6	Grazer AK	8	−10	9
7	TSV Hartberg	7	−3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	−3	8
9	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
10	Austria Vienna	8	−8	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3