SCR Altach v Ried prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SCR AltachDrawRied

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · SCR Altach 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with SCR Altach just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: SCR Altach 36%, draw 31%, Ried 33%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on SCR Altach v RiedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

SCR Altach win36%

Draw31%

Ried win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCashpoint-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SCR Altach

Ried

8Days since last match14

Last match: 23 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Ried	9	+1	14
9	SCR Altach	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · scr altach winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

36% The market40%

Us36%

~~Market~~40%

We make SCR Altach a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SCR Altach v Ried~~1.20 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 14~~9 v 5

~~The market · SCR Altach win~~40% · ours 36%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SCR Altach win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SCR Altach win	36%	40%	−4
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Ried win	33%	33%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	54%	−12
Both teams to score	49%	58%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	69%	76%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	21%	34%	−13
SCR Altach or draw	67%	67%	0
SCR Altach clean sheet	32%	–	–
Ried clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 11.0 9.6 6.3 2.4 1 10.0 14.5 7.5 2.9 2 6.8 7.8 4.5 3 2.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SCR Altach down, Ried across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SCR Altach at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ried away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for SCR Altach, 1.15 for Ried. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCR 2–0 RIE · RIE 3–2 SCR · RIE 3–0 SCR · SCR 1–0 RIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 21 Aug

SCR ALTACH

LLLWLW0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

RIED

WLDWWW1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	10	+22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	10	−3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	−2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	−15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	−12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	−12	5