SCR Altach v Austria Vienna prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

SCR Altach 2–1 Austria Vienna AUSTRIA VIENNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Austria Vienna win~~40%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.749

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.501

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Austria Vienna win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Austria Vienna was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 30–31–40
1′KICK-OFF SCR Altach v Austria Vienna
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Yann massombo · SCR Altach
21′SUBSTITUTION · 21' SCR Altach · On: Yanis Eisschill · Off: Vesel Demaku
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Austria Vienna win 36%)
41′We published Austria Vienna at 40%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
41′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
41′Austria Vienna ahead on 40′ through Johannes Eggestein. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' SCR Altach 0–1 Austria Vienna
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Austria Vienna win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Austria Vienna win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 41%)
43′We published Austria Vienna at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME SCR Altach 0–1 Austria Vienna
46′SECOND HALF SCR Altach 0–1 Austria Vienna
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Austria Vienna · On: Kang-Hee Lee · Off: Vasilije Markovic
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Austria Vienna · On: Kelvin Owusu Boateng · Off: Julian Hettwer
61′We published Austria Vienna at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Austria Vienna win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SCR Altach · On: S. Nakano · Off: Rodney Elongo-Yombo
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' SCR Altach · On: Johannes Naschberger · Off: Niklas Niehoff
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Kang-Hee Lee · Austria Vienna
71′We said Austria Vienna at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 16–65–19
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' SCR Altach 1–1 Austria Vienna
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Austria Vienna win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Austria Vienna win 84%)
76′Patrick Greil scores for SCR Altach on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 13–72–15
78′We said Austria Vienna at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 11–75–14
81′We said Austria Vienna at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 89–10–1
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 89–10–1
81′80′: Yann massombo on the scoresheet for SCR Altach, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' SCR Altach 2–1 Austria Vienna
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Austria Vienna win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' SCR Altach win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 78%)
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Austria Vienna win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Austria Vienna · On: Sanel Saljic · Off: Daniel Nnodim
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' ibrahim buhari · Austria Vienna
89′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' SCR Altach 3–1 Austria Vienna
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90' SCR Altach
FTFULL TIME SCR Altach 2–1 Austria Vienna
FTSCR Altach 2–1 Austria Vienna · Austria Vienna win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Austria Vienna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SCR Altach 30%, draw 31%, Austria Vienna 40%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on SCR Altach v Austria ViennaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SCR Altach win30%

Draw31%

Austria Vienna win40%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueCashpoint Arena

RefereeArnes Talic

Line-ups

SCR Altach

3-4-1-2

Austria Vienna

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SCR Altach

Austria Vienna

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Austria Vienna	9	−9	7
11	SCR Altach	9	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SCR Altach

3-4-1-2

1 D. Stojanovic

23 B. Zech

27 Filip Milojevic

17 L. Jäger

29 N. Niehoff

28 Y. Massombo

6 V. Demaku

37 B. Böckle

18 P. Greil

39 R. Elongo-Yombo

10 O. Diawara

Coach · O. Zaric

Substitutes

19 · S. Hrstić

22 · Y. Eisschill

7 · D. Cosgun

21 · Jakob Brandtner

31 · D. Antosch

16 · R. Rahmani

14 · J. Naschberger

34 · A. Vonbrul

11 · S. Nakano

Austria Vienna

3-4-2-1

1 S. Şahin-Radlinger

26 R. Ranftl

46 J. Handl

3 I. Buhari

40 Daniel Nnodim

5 V. Müller

7 V. Markovic

17 Lee Tae-Seok

30 M. Fischer

20 J. Hettwer

19 J. Eggestein

Coach · S. Helm

Substitutes

99 · M. Kos

22 · F. Wustinger

44 · V. Toifl

21 · Matteo Schablas

10 · S. Saljic

6 · Philipp Maybach

16 · Lee Kang-Hee

42 · D. Ewemade

14 · K. Boateng

Our number · austria vienna winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 20 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off

40% The market31%

Us40%

~~Market~~31%

We make Austria Vienna a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SCR Altach v Austria Vienna~~1.06 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~11 v 10

~~The market · Austria Vienna win~~31% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Austria Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SCR Altach win	30%	42%	−12
Draw	31%	27%	+4
Austria Vienna win	40%	31%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	41%	52%	−11
Both teams to score	48%	56%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	21%	32%	−11
SCR Altach or draw	60%	69%	−9
SCR Altach clean sheet	28%	–	–
Austria Vienna clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 11.2 10.9 7.9 3.4 1 8.8 14.4 8.2 3.5 2 5.5 6.9 4.4 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SCR Altach down, Austria Vienna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,029 Bundesliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SCR Altach at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Austria Vienna away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for SCR Altach, 1.27 for Austria Vienna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SCR 2–1 AUS · AUS 1–0 SCR · AUS 3–0 SCR · SCR 1–1 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

SCR ALTACH

LLLLWL1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 0–3

AUSTRIA VIENNA

LLWDLL1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	WSG Wattens	9	−2	11
7	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
8	Grazer AK	9	−15	9
9	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
10	Austria Vienna	9	−9	7
11	SCR Altach	9	−7	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	−11	5