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Model 1.2

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Ried v Austria Vienna

Ried
3–2Full time
Austria Vienna

Bundesliga · SAT 17 OCT · Josko Arena

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 21:02
Ried 3–2 Austria Vienna AUSTRIA VIENNA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Austria Vienna win37%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.646
The market’s Brier score0.562

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Austria Vienna win at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Austria Vienna 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ried v Austria Vienna
  4. 18′A goal for Austria Vienna on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
  5. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ried 0–1 Austria Vienna
  6. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
  7. 19′We said Austria Vienna at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
  8. 24′23′: Stefan Schwab on the scoresheet for Ried, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
  9. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ried 1–1 Austria Vienna
  10. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
  11. 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' J. Rhodes · Ried
  12. 29′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 66–21–12
  13. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
  14. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
  15. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Ried win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Austria Vienna win 12%)
  16. 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 66–22–12
  17. 30′Ried ahead on 28′ through Philipp Pomer. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–22–12
  18. 42′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
  21. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Austria Vienna · On: Julian Hettwer · Off: Sanel Saljic
  22. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  23. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Ante Bajic · Ried
  24. 63′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ried · On: Isaac Thelin · Off: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
  26. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ried · On: Oliver Sorg · Off: J. Rhodes
  27. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ried · On: Dejan Radonjic · Off: Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
  28. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Stefan Schwab · Ried
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Austria Vienna · On: Matteo Schablas · Off: Lee Tae-seok
  30. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ried · On: Lukas Malicsek · Off: Martin Rasner
  31. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Austria Vienna · On: Kelvin Owusu Boateng · Off: Vasilije Markovic
  32. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Moegamat Yusuf Maart · Ried
  33. 82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  34. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ried 3–1 Austria Vienna
  35. 83′Isaac Thelin scores for Ried on 82′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  36. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ried · On: Joris Boguo · Off: Ante Bajic
  37. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Austria Vienna · On: Florian Wustinger · Off: Manfred Fischer
  38. 93′90′: Johannes Eggestein on the scoresheet for Austria Vienna, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  39. 93′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  40. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ried 3–2 Austria Vienna · Johannes Eggestein
  41. FTFULL TIME Ried 3–2 Austria Vienna
  42. FTRied 3–2 Austria Vienna · Austria Vienna win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Austria Vienna just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ried 35%, draw 29%, Austria Vienna 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Ried v Austria ViennaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ried win35%
Draw29%
Austria Vienna win37%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueJosko Arena

RefereeManuel Baumann

Line-ups

Ried

4-3-3

Austria Vienna

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ried

Austria Vienna

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Ried8011
10Austria Vienna8−87

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ried

4-3-3

1 A. Leitner

18 F. Rossdorfer

28 S. Chukwudi

30 O. Steurer

17 P. Pomer

8 M. Rasner

6 Y. Maart

22 S. Schwab

12 A. Bajić

47 Evan Eghosa Aisowieren

11 J. Rhodes

Coach · M. Despotović

Substitutes

29 · L. Capan

13 · H. Hankič

92 · I. Kiese Thelin

4 · L. Malicsek

10 · J. Nasrawe

5 · D. Radonjic

9 · N. Sissoko

7 · O. Sorg

15 · J. Boguo

Austria Vienna

4-2-3-1

1 S. Şahin-Radlinger

26 R. Ranftl

46 J. Handl

3 I. Buhari

17 Lee Tae-Seok

5 V. Müller

7 V. Markovic

40 Daniel Nnodim

30 M. Fischer

10 S. Saljic

19 J. Eggestein

Coach · S. Helm

Substitutes

22 · F. Wustinger

44 · V. Toifl

21 · Matteo Schablas

6 · Philipp Maybach

16 · Lee Kang-Hee

99 · M. Kos

20 · J. Hettwer

42 · D. Ewemade

14 · K. Boateng

Our number · austria vienna winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market36%
Us37%
Market36%

We make Austria Vienna a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ried v Austria Vienna1.29 – 1.34
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 14 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 11 v 75 v 10
The market · Austria Vienna win36% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 17:39
Our probability · Austria Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ried win35%39%−4
Draw29%25%+4
Austria Vienna win37%36%+1
Over 2.5 goals49%57%−8
Both teams to score54%61%−7
Over 1.5 goals75%79%−4
Over 3.5 goals27%36%−9
Ried or draw63%64%−1
Ried clean sheet26%––
Austria Vienna clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%
0123450 8.7 8.3 6.5 2.9 1 7.9 13.7 8.2 3.7 2 6.0 7.9 5.3 2.4 3 2.6 3.5 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ried down, Austria Vienna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.67
Over 2.55 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsRIE 0–2 AUS · AUS 3–2 RIE · RIE 1–3 AUS · AUS 3–0 RIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

RIED

LWLDWW1–4 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

AUSTRIA VIENNA

WLLWDL2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rapid Vienna9+1824
2Red Bull Salzburg8+1418
3Lask Linz8+1016
4Sturm Graz8+114
5Ried8011
6TSV Hartberg9−411
7Grazer AK8−109
8Austria Lustenau8−48
9WSG Wattens8−48
10Austria Vienna8−87
11SCR Altach8−46
12Wolfsberger AC8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.