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Ried v Austria Vienna
Ried
Austria ViennaBundesliga · SAT 17 OCT · Josko Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Austria Vienna win at 37%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Austria Vienna 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–29–37
- 1′KICK-OFF Ried v Austria Vienna
- 18′A goal for Austria Vienna on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–20–67
- 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ried 0–1 Austria Vienna
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
- 19′We said Austria Vienna at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 0–1 · 13–20–67
- 24′23′: Stefan Schwab on the scoresheet for Ried, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–33–34
- 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ried 1–1 Austria Vienna
- 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
- 26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' J. Rhodes · Ried
- 29′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 66–21–12
- 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
- 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Ried win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Austria Vienna win 12%)
- 30′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 66–22–12
- 30′Ried ahead on 28′ through Philipp Pomer. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–22–12
- 42′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
- 45′HALF-TIME Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
- 46′SECOND HALF Ried 2–1 Austria Vienna
- 49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Austria Vienna · On: Julian Hettwer · Off: Sanel Saljic
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Austria Vienna win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
- 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Ante Bajic · Ried
- 63′We said Austria Vienna at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ried · On: Isaac Thelin · Off: Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ried · On: Oliver Sorg · Off: J. Rhodes
- 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ried · On: Dejan Radonjic · Off: Fabian Hubert Rossdorfer
- 68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Stefan Schwab · Ried
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Austria Vienna · On: Matteo Schablas · Off: Lee Tae-seok
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ried · On: Lukas Malicsek · Off: Martin Rasner
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Austria Vienna · On: Kelvin Owusu Boateng · Off: Vasilije Markovic
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Moegamat Yusuf Maart · Ried
- 82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Ried 3–1 Austria Vienna
- 83′Isaac Thelin scores for Ried on 82′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Ried · On: Joris Boguo · Off: Ante Bajic
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Austria Vienna · On: Florian Wustinger · Off: Manfred Fischer
- 93′90′: Johannes Eggestein on the scoresheet for Austria Vienna, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 93′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ried 3–2 Austria Vienna · Johannes Eggestein
- FTFULL TIME Ried 3–2 Austria Vienna
- FTRied 3–2 Austria Vienna · Austria Vienna win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassClose to call, with Austria Vienna just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Ried 35%, draw 29%, Austria Vienna 37%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Ried win35%
Austria Vienna win37%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:30
RoundMatchday 9
VenueJosko Arena
RefereeManuel Baumann
Match timeline
All events
RiedMIN
Austria ViennaEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Ried
4-3-3
Austria Vienna
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ried
Austria Vienna
Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga
Last match: 10 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Ried
4-3-3
1 A. Leitner
18 F. Rossdorfer
28 S. Chukwudi
30 O. Steurer
17 P. Pomer
8 M. Rasner
6 Y. Maart
22 S. Schwab
12 A. Bajić
47 Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
11 J. Rhodes
Coach · M. Despotović
Substitutes
29 · L. Capan
13 · H. Hankič
92 · I. Kiese Thelin
4 · L. Malicsek
10 · J. Nasrawe
5 · D. Radonjic
9 · N. Sissoko
7 · O. Sorg
15 · J. Boguo
Austria Vienna
4-2-3-1
1 S. Şahin-Radlinger
26 R. Ranftl
46 J. Handl
3 I. Buhari
17 Lee Tae-Seok
5 V. Müller
7 V. Markovic
40 Daniel Nnodim
30 M. Fischer
10 S. Saljic
19 J. Eggestein
Coach · S. Helm
Substitutes
22 · F. Wustinger
44 · V. Toifl
21 · Matteo Schablas
6 · Philipp Maybach
16 · Lee Kang-Hee
99 · M. Kos
20 · J. Hettwer
42 · D. Ewemade
14 · K. Boateng
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Ried
4-3-3
1 A. Leitner
18 F. Rossdorfer
28 S. Chukwudi
30 O. Steurer
17 P. Pomer
8 M. Rasner
6 Y. Maart
22 S. Schwab
12 A. Bajić
47 Evan Eghosa Aisowieren
11 J. Rhodes
Coach · M. Despotović
Substitutes
29 · L. Capan
13 · H. Hankič
92 · I. Kiese Thelin
4 · L. Malicsek
10 · J. Nasrawe
5 · D. Radonjic
9 · N. Sissoko
7 · O. Sorg
15 · J. Boguo
Austria Vienna
4-2-3-1
1 S. Şahin-Radlinger
26 R. Ranftl
46 J. Handl
3 I. Buhari
17 Lee Tae-Seok
5 V. Müller
7 V. Markovic
40 Daniel Nnodim
30 M. Fischer
10 S. Saljic
19 J. Eggestein
Coach · S. Helm
Substitutes
22 · F. Wustinger
44 · V. Toifl
21 · Matteo Schablas
6 · Philipp Maybach
16 · Lee Kang-Hee
99 · M. Kos
20 · J. Hettwer
42 · D. Ewemade
14 · K. Boateng
We make Austria Vienna a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 36% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ried win | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | +4 |
| Austria Vienna win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 61% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 79% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 36% | −9 |
| Ried or draw | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Ried clean sheet | 26% | – | – |
| Austria Vienna clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
6 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug
RIED
AUSTRIA VIENNA
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 9 | +18 | 24 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 8 | +14 | 18 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 8 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 8 | +1 | 14 |
| 5 | Ried | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 9 | −4 | 11 |
| 7 | Grazer AK | 8 | −10 | 9 |
| 8 | Austria Lustenau | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 10 | Austria Vienna | 8 | −8 | 7 |
| 11 | SCR Altach | 8 | −4 | 6 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | −9 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Rapid Vienna
Red Bull Salzburg
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK
Austria Lustenau
WSG Wattens
SCR Altach
Wolfsberger AC