Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 SCR Altach RED BULL SALZBURG WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Red Bull Salzburg win~~68%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.162

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Red Bull Salzburg win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Red Bull Salzburg was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–22–11
1′KICK-OFF Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach
6′Red Bull Salzburg find the net on 6′. 0–0 · 66–22–11
6′We published Red Bull Salzburg at 68%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–8–3
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 SCR Altach
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Red Bull Salzburg win: 68% at kick-off, 89% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 88–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 SCR Altach
45′SECOND HALF Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 SCR Altach
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Damir Redzic · Off: Edmund Baidoo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Yorbe Vertessen · Off: Gaoussou Diakité
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SCR Altach · On: Denizcan Cosgun · Off: Rodney Elongo-Yombo
66′We published Red Bull Salzburg at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Umut Deger Tohumcu · Off: Bartosz Mazurek
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SCR Altach · On: srdan hristic · Off: Yann massombo
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' SCR Altach · On: Yanis Eisschill · Off: Vesel Demaku
74′Red Bull Salzburg ahead on 73′ through Jesper Lindstrom. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′We published Red Bull Salzburg at 68%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Red Bull Salzburg 2–0 SCR Altach · Jesper Lindstrom
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Red Bull Salzburg win: 68% at kick-off, 99% now
75′We published Red Bull Salzburg at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Tim Drexler · Off: Leandro Morgalla
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Sota Kitano · Off: Haris Tabaković
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SCR Altach · On: Johannes Naschberger · Off: Niklas Niehoff
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SCR Altach · On: Jakob Brandtner · Off: Benjamin·Bockle
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Filip Milojevic · SCR Altach
90′89′: Damir Redzic on the scoresheet for Red Bull Salzburg. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Red Bull Salzburg at 68% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 SCR Altach · Damir Redzic
FTFULL TIME Red Bull Salzburg 3–0 SCR Altach
FTRed Bull Salzburg 3–0 SCR Altach · Red Bull Salzburg win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Red Bull Salzburg 68%, draw 21%, SCR Altach 11%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Red Bull Salzburg v SCR AltachBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg win68%

Draw21%

SCR Altach win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueRed Bull Arena

RefereeAlain Sadikovski

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

SCR Altach

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Red Bull Salzburg

SCR Altach

3Days since last match7

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
11	SCR Altach	8	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

52 Christian Zawieschitzky

39 L. Morgalla

44 K. Boma

47 Valentin Zabransky

31 D. Schmid

15 B. Mazurek

32 A. Barry

20 E. Baidoo

30 G. Diakité

35 J. Lindstrøm

9 H. Tabaković

Coach · D. Röhl

Substitutes

33 · A. Camara

21 · T. Drexler

1 · C. Früchtl

8 · S. Kitano

13 · F. Krätzig

22 · S. Lainer

23 · D. Redzic

7 · U. Tohumcu

11 · Y. Vertessen

SCR Altach

5-3-2

1 D. Stojanovic

29 N. Niehoff

23 B. Zech

27 Filip Milojevic

17 L. Jäger

37 B. Böckle

28 Y. Massombo

6 V. Demaku

18 P. Greil

10 O. Diawara

39 R. Elongo-Yombo

Coach · O. Zaric

Substitutes

14 · J. Naschberger

19 · S. Hrstić

22 · Y. Eisschill

16 · R. Rahmani

7 · D. Cosgun

21 · Jakob Brandtner

31 · D. Antosch

34 · A. Vonbrul

11 · S. Nakano

Our number · red bull salzburg winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

68% The market68%

Us68%

~~Market~~68%

We make Red Bull Salzburg a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Red Bull Salzburg v SCR Altach~~2.06 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 18 v 6~~3 v 11

~~The market · Red Bull Salzburg win~~68% · ours 68%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Red Bull Salzburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 68% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Red Bull Salzburg win	68%	68%	0
Draw	21%	19%	+2
SCR Altach win	11%	13%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	56%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	77%	84%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	45%	−15
Red Bull Salzburg or draw	89%	87%	+2
Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet	49%	–	–
SCR Altach clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.2%

0123450 7.3 3.5 1 11.9 10.1 3.3 2 13.2 9.3 3.3 3 9.1 6.4 2.3 4 4.8 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Red Bull Salzburg down, SCR Altach across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,026 Bundesliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.7% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). SCR Altach away: 0.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Red Bull Salzburg, 0.71 for SCR Altach. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RED 0–1 SCR · SCR 1–1 RED · RED 2–2 SCR · SCR 1–1 RED

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 15 Aug

RED BULL SALZBURG

WWWDWD3–0 · 4–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0

SCR ALTACH

LLLLLW0–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
3	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
4	Ried	9	+1	14
5	Sturm Graz	8	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
7	Grazer AK	8	−10	9
8	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
9	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
10	Austria Vienna	9	−9	7
11	SCR Altach	8	−4	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	−9	5