Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Rapid Vienna 3–1 TSV Hartberg RAPID VIENNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rapid Vienna win~~51%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.365

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rapid Vienna win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rapid Vienna 51% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg
6′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–9
6′Rapid Vienna find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–9
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Rapid Vienna 1–0 TSV Hartberg
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Rapid Vienna 1–1 TSV Hartberg
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
16′Marco Hoffmann scores for TSV Hartberg on 14′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 49–27–24
17′GOAL DISALLOWED · 17' TSV Hartberg
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
20′Rapid Vienna ahead on 5′ through Petter Nosakhare Dahl. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
27′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao · Rapid Vienna
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Rapid Vienna 2–0 TSV Hartberg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' TSV Hartberg · On: Tobias Kainz · Off: Nikolaus Feldhofer
45′SECOND HALF Rapid Vienna 2–0 TSV Hartberg
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' TSV Hartberg · On: Oliver Lukic · Off: Youba Diarra
46′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Rapid Vienna 2–0 TSV Hartberg · Petter Nosakhare Dahl (assist Ercan Kara)
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
47′45′: Petter Nosakhare Dahl on the scoresheet for Rapid Vienna. 1–0 · 78–17–5 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
50′49′: Magnus Dalpiaz on the scoresheet for TSV Hartberg, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–5
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Rapid Vienna 2–1 TSV Hartberg · Magnus Dalpiaz (assist Oliver Lukic)
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 79% now
51′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
54′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
55′10 shots for TSV Hartberg, 5 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
56′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Luka·Maric · TSV Hartberg
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Konstantin Schopp · TSV Hartberg
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rapid Vienna · On: Moulaye Haïdara · Off: Tonni Adamsen
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' TSV Hartberg · On: Jed Drew · Off: Manuel Pfeifer
70′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rapid Vienna · On: Claudy M'Buyi · Off: Ercan Kara
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rapid Vienna · On: Marco Tilio · Off: Petter Nosakhare Dahl
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' TSV Hartberg · On: Andrija Radulovic · Off: Angelo Gattermayer
78′12 shots for TSV Hartberg, 6 the other way, and they still trail 2–1. 2–1 · 89–10–1
79′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Rapid Vienna win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
82′Rapid Vienna ahead on 81′ through Jannes Horn. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Rapid Vienna 3–1 TSV Hartberg · Jannes Horn
83′We said Rapid Vienna at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rapid Vienna · On: Louis Schaub · Off: Nicolas Bajlicz
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Rapid Vienna · On: Nikolaus Wurmbrand · Off: Yusuf Demir
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' TSV Hartberg · On: Jonas Karner · Off: Marco Hoffmann
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Jonas Karner · TSV Hartberg
FTFULL TIME Rapid Vienna 3–1 TSV Hartberg
FTRapid Vienna 3–1 TSV Hartberg · Rapid Vienna win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rapid Vienna are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rapid Vienna 51%, draw 26%, TSV Hartberg 23%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Rapid Vienna v TSV HartbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Rapid Vienna win51%

Draw26%

TSV Hartberg win23%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAllianz Stadion

RefereeDaniel Pfister

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

TSV Hartberg

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rapid Vienna

TSV Hartberg

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

1 N. Hedl

77 B. Bolla

55 N. Cvetković

6 S. Raux-Yao

38 J. Horn

30 N. Bajlicz

18 M. Seidl

22 Y. Demir

8 T. Adamsen

10 P. Dahl

9 E. Kara

Coach · Johannes Thorup

Substitutes

20 · K. Ahoussou

61 · F. Demir

25 · P. Gartler

43 · M. Haïdara

71 · C. M'Buyi

2 · Eaden Roka

21 · L. Schaub

7 · M. Tilio

15 · Nikolaus Wurmbrand

TSV Hartberg

4-4-2

91 Á. Pécsi

14 P. Komposch

27 K. Schopp

6 Habib Coulibaly

12 M. Pfeifer

16 M. Dalpiaz

4 B. Markuš

5 Y. Diarra

95 Nikolaus Feldhofer

7 A. Gattermayer

22 M. Hoffman

Coach · M. Schopp

Substitutes

17 · J. Karner

10 · O. Lukic

21 · L. Marić

2 · L. Pazourek

8 · M. Postl

49 · A. Radulović

19 · L. Spendlhofer

23 · T. Kainz

11 · J. Drew

Our number · rapid vienna winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 13 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off

51% The market75%

Us51%

~~Market~~75%

We make Rapid Vienna a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 24 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rapid Vienna v TSV Hartberg~~1.72 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 16 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 11~~1 v 6

~~The market · Rapid Vienna win~~75% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rapid Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. The market has gone from 72% to 75% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rapid Vienna win	51%	75%	−24
Draw	26%	15%	+11
TSV Hartberg win	23%	9%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	53%	70%	−17
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	86%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	31%	50%	−19
Rapid Vienna or draw	77%	91%	−14
Rapid Vienna clean sheet	34%	–	–
TSV Hartberg clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 5.3 3.6 1 9.1 12.5 6.2 2.3 2 8.9 9.7 5.3 3 5.1 5.5 3.0 4 2.2 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rapid Vienna down, TSV Hartberg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,023 Bundesliga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rapid Vienna at home: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). TSV Hartberg away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Rapid Vienna, 1.09 for TSV Hartberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAP 0–2 TSV · TSV 2–2 RAP · RAP 1–1 TSV · TSV 0–1 RAP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 16 Aug

RAPID VIENNA

WWLWWW8–0 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

TSV HARTBERG

LWWDDW0–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	8	+16	21
2	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
3	Lask Linz	8	+10	16
4	Sturm Graz	8	+1	14
5	Ried	8	0	11
6	TSV Hartberg	8	−2	11
7	Grazer AK	8	−10	9
8	Austria Lustenau	8	−4	8
9	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
10	Austria Vienna	8	−8	7
11	SCR Altach	8	−4	6
12	Wolfsberger AC	8	−9	5