Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

Rapid Vienna 5–1 Austria Lustenau RAPID VIENNA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rapid Vienna win~~63%

~~The market said~~79%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.209

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.068

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rapid Vienna win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Rapid Vienna 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–22–15
1′KICK-OFF Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau
6′We said Rapid Vienna at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Rapid Vienna 1–0 Austria Lustenau
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rapid Vienna win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
7′Rapid Vienna find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
9′We said Rapid Vienna at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Rapid Vienna 2–0 Austria Lustenau
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Rapid Vienna win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
10′Nenad Cvetković scores for Rapid Vienna on 9′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
11′Nenad Cvetković scores for Rapid Vienna on 8′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Rapid Vienna 3–0 Austria Lustenau
20′Ercan Kara scores for Rapid Vienna on 18′. 2–0 · 95–4–1
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Rapid Vienna
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Robin Voisine · Austria Lustenau
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Rapid Vienna 3–0 Austria Lustenau
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Danilo Soares · Austria Lustenau
42′41′: Yusuf Demir on the scoresheet for Rapid Vienna, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′SECOND HALF Rapid Vienna 3–0 Austria Lustenau
46′We said Rapid Vienna at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Albin Gashi · Austria Lustenau
47′HALF-TIME Rapid Vienna 3–0 Austria Lustenau
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Austria Lustenau · On: Lenn Jastremski · Off: Antonio Verinac
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Austria Lustenau · On: Haris Ismailcebioglu · Off: Lord Afrifa
60′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rapid Vienna 3–1 Austria Lustenau
61′Austria Lustenau pull one back on 60′ through Haris Ismailcebioglu. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
67′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Rapid Vienna 4–1 Austria Lustenau
68′Yusuf Demir scores for Rapid Vienna on 67′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rapid Vienna · On: Marco Tilio · Off: Ercan Kara
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Rapid Vienna · On: Moulaye Haïdara · Off: Petter Nosakhare Dahl
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Austria Lustenau · On: Matthias Maak · Off: Seydou Diarra
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Austria Lustenau · On: Alieu Conateh · Off: Dominik Weixelbraun
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Austria Lustenau · On: Lukas Ibertsberger · Off: Pius Grabher
85′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Rapid Vienna 5–1 Austria Lustenau
86′85′: Marco Tilio on the scoresheet for Rapid Vienna, making it 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rapid Vienna · On: Eaden roka · Off: Jannes Horn
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Rapid Vienna · On: Louis Schaub · Off: Nicolas Bajlicz
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Rapid Vienna · On: Nikolaus Wurmbrand · Off: Yusuf Demir
92′5–1 at the end. Our 63% on Rapid Vienna comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Rapid Vienna 5–1 Austria Lustenau
FTRapid Vienna 5–1 Austria Lustenau · Rapid Vienna win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rapid Vienna are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rapid Vienna 63%, draw 22%, Austria Lustenau 15%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Rapid Vienna v Austria LustenauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rapid Vienna win63%

Draw22%

Austria Lustenau win15%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAllianz Stadion

RefereeWalter Altmann

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

Austria Lustenau

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rapid Vienna

Austria Lustenau

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 17 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

1 N. Hedl

77 B. Bolla

55 N. Cvetković

6 S. Raux-Yao

38 J. Horn

30 N. Bajlicz

18 M. Seidl

22 Y. Demir

8 T. Adamsen

10 P. Dahl

9 E. Kara

Coach · Johannes Thorup

Substitutes

15 · Nikolaus Wurmbrand

7 · M. Tilio

20 · K. Ahoussou

61 · F. Demir

25 · P. Gartler

43 · M. Haïdara

71 · C. M'Buyi

2 · Eaden Roka

21 · L. Schaub

Austria Lustenau

4-1-4-1

27 D. Schierl

7 F. Gmeiner

18 R. Voisine

29 N. Pertlwieser

3 Danilo Soares

17 A. Gashi

11 D. Weixelbraun

20 L. Afrifa

23 P. Grabher

24 S. Diarra

39 A. Verinac

Coach · M. Mader

Substitutes

14 · P. Benjamin

30 · P. Böhm

10 · Alieu Conateh

26 · L. Ibertsberger

61 · H. Ismailcebioglu

9 · L. Jastremski

54 · Melih Akubulut

31 · M. Maak

33 · Frederic Flatz

Our number · rapid vienna winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market79%

Us63%

~~Market~~79%

We make Rapid Vienna a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 79%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rapid Vienna v Austria Lustenau~~2.11 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 24 v 8~~1 v 10

~~The market · Rapid Vienna win~~79% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rapid Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 79% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rapid Vienna win	63%	79%	−16
Draw	22%	13%	+9
Austria Lustenau win	15%	8%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	59%	73%	−14
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	88%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	54%	−17
Rapid Vienna or draw	85%	92%	−7
Rapid Vienna clean sheet	39%	–	–
Austria Lustenau clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.8 3.4 2.1 1 8.9 10.4 4.5 2 10.4 9.8 4.7 3 7.3 6.9 3.3 4 3.9 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rapid Vienna down, Austria Lustenau across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,030 Bundesliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rapid Vienna at home: 3.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Austria Lustenau away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for Rapid Vienna, 0.95 for Austria Lustenau. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAP 1–1 AUS · AUS 0–5 RAP · AUS 3–3 RAP · RAP 1–1 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 22 Aug

RAPID VIENNA

WLWWWW3–1 · 1–5 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

AUSTRIA LUSTENAU

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	9	+18	24
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	WSG Wattens	9	−2	11
7	TSV Hartberg	9	−4	11
8	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
9	Grazer AK	9	−15	9
10	Austria Lustenau	9	−8	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	9	−11	5