Lask Linz v WSG Wattens prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lask LinzDrawWSG Wattens

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Lask Linz 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lask Linz are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lask Linz 63%, draw 22%, WSG Wattens 15%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Lask Linz v WSG WattensBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Lask Linz win63%

Draw22%

WSG Wattens win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueRaiffeisen Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lask Linz

WSG Wattens

10Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
7	WSG Wattens	10	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lask linz winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

63% The market70%

Us63%

~~Market~~70%

We make Lask Linz a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lask Linz v WSG Wattens~~2.12 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~3 v 7

~~The market · Lask Linz win~~70% · ours 63%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lask Linz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lask Linz win	63%	70%	−7
Draw	22%	18%	+4
WSG Wattens win	15%	12%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	67%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Lask Linz or draw	85%	88%	−3
Lask Linz clean sheet	38%	–	–
WSG Wattens clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.6 3.4 2.2 1 8.7 10.4 4.5 2 10.2 9.9 4.8 3 7.2 7.0 3.4 4 3.8 3.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lask Linz down, WSG Wattens across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lask Linz at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). WSG Wattens away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Lask Linz, 0.97 for WSG Wattens. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAS 1–0 WSG · WSG 3–1 LAS · WSG 1–3 LAS · LAS 2–0 WSG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

LASK LINZ

WWLDLW3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 4–0

WSG WATTENS

WDLLWD1–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	10	+22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	10	−3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	−2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	−15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	−12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	−12	5