Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Lask LinzDrawRed Bull Salzburg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Red Bull Salzburg 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Red Bull Salzburg are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lask Linz 34%, draw 27%, Red Bull Salzburg 39%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Lask Linz v Red Bull SalzburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Lask Linz win34%

Draw27%

Red Bull Salzburg win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueRaiffeisen Arena

RefereeAlexander Harkam

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lask Linz

Red Bull Salzburg

4Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · red bull salzburg winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market32%

Us39%

~~Market~~32%

We make Red Bull Salzburg a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lask Linz v Red Bull Salzburg~~1.39 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 21~~3 v 2

~~The market · Red Bull Salzburg win~~32% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Red Bull Salzburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lask Linz win	34%	43%	−9
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Red Bull Salzburg win	39%	32%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	55%	65%	−10
Both teams to score	59%	67%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	79%	84%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	45%	−12
Lask Linz or draw	61%	68%	−7
Lask Linz clean sheet	22%	–	–
Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 6.9 7.3 6.4 3.2 1 6.4 12.7 8.6 4.3 2 5.3 7.9 5.9 2.9 3 2.5 3.7 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lask Linz down, Red Bull Salzburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lask Linz at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Lask Linz, 1.50 for Red Bull Salzburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LAS 2–1 RED · RED 2–3 LAS · LAS 1–5 RED · RED 3–0 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

LASK LINZ

WWLDLW3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 4–0

RED BULL SALZBURG

WWDWDW4–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	10	+22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	10	−3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	−2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	−15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	−12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	−12	5