Lask Linz v Rapid Vienna prediction · Bundesliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Lask Linz 0–2 Rapid Vienna LASK LINZ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lask Linz win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.826

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lask Linz win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lask Linz was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–25–28
1′Much as we predicted: Lask Linz was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Lask Linz v Rapid Vienna
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Melayro Bogarde · Lask Linz
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Lask Linz 1–0 Rapid Vienna
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lask Linz 1–0 Rapid Vienna · Sasa Kalajdzic
45′SECOND HALF Lask Linz 0–0 Rapid Vienna
46′HALF-TIME Lask Linz 0–0 Rapid Vienna
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Lask Linz 0–1 Rapid Vienna
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Lask Linz 0–1 Rapid Vienna · Ercan Kara
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lask Linz · On: Moses Usor · Off: Christoph Lang Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lask Linz · On: Yvan Dibango · Off: George Bello Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ercan Kara · Rapid Vienna
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lask Linz · On: Samuel Adeniran · Off: Moses Usor Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Lask Linz · On: Alessandro Schöpf · Off: Robert Ljubicic Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rapid Vienna · On: Moulaye Haïdara · Off: Tonni Adamsen Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Lask Linz 0–2 Rapid Vienna · Ercan Kara
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rapid Vienna · On: Claudy M'Buyi · Off: Ercan Kara Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rapid Vienna · On: Louis Schaub · Off: Petter Nosakhare Dahl Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Lask Linz 0–2 Rapid Vienna · Claudy M'Buyi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lask Linz · On: Florian Flecker · Off: Sasa Kalajdzic Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Rapid Vienna · On: Nikolaus Wurmbrand · Off: Yusuf Demir Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Rapid Vienna · On: Marco Tilio · Off: Nicolas Bajlicz Corrected
FTFULL TIME Lask Linz 0–2 Rapid Vienna
FTLask Linz 0–2 Rapid Vienna · Lask Linz win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lask Linz win46%

Draw27%

Rapid Vienna win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueRaiffeisen Arena

RefereeArnes Talic

Line-ups

Lask Linz

5-3-2

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lask Linz

Rapid Vienna

21Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lask Linz

5-3-2

1 L. Jungwirth

20 K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen

4 X. Mbuyamba

43 J. Tornich

16 A. Andrade

2 G. Bello

10 R. Ljubicic

6 M. Bogarde

30 S. Horvath

11 S. Kalajdzic

27 C. Lang

Coach · Dietmar Kuhbauer

Substitutes

33 · T. Schutzenauer

25 · Y. Dibango

3 · M. Freckleton

29 · F. Flecker

9 · K. Danek

18 · A. Schopf

23 · D. Elfadli

7 · S. Adeniran

8 · M. Usor

Rapid Vienna

4-2-3-1

1 N. Hedl

77 B. Bolla

55 N. Cvetkovic

6 S. Raux-Yao

38 J. Horn

18 M. Seidl

30 N. Bajlicz

22 Y. Demir

8 T. Adamsen

10 P. Dahl

9 E. Kara

Coach · Johannes Thorup

Substitutes

25 · P. Gartler

61 · F. Demir

2 · E. Roka

20 · A. Ahoussou

21 · L. Schaub

15 · N. Wurmbrand

71 · C. M'Buyi

7 · M. Tilio

43 · M. Haidara

Our number · lask linz winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Lask Linz a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · lask linz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 52% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lask Linz win	46%	48%	−2
Draw	27%	24%	+3
Rapid Vienna win	27%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	67%	−13
Both teams to score	57%	67%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	79%	85%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	32%	47%	−15
Lask Linz or draw	73%	73%	+1
Lask Linz clean sheet	30%	–	–
Rapid Vienna clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.2 5.8 4.2 1 8.3 12.7 6.8 2.7 2 7.8 9.3 5.6 2.2 3 4.3 5.1 3.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lask Linz down, Rapid Vienna across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,020 Bundesliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 11 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lask Linz at home: 2.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rapid Vienna away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Lask Linz, 1.20 for Rapid Vienna. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:44. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 18

~~Both scored~~12 of 18

~~Last meetings~~LAS 3–1 RAP · RAP 4–2 LAS · LAS 3–0 RAP · RAP 0–2 LAS

Form · last six in Bundesliga

LASK LINZ

WWWWLD2–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3

RAPID VIENNA

WWWLWW2–1 · 8–0 · 3–1 · 1–5 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	8	+14	18
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	8	+1	14
5	Ried	8	0	11
6	Grazer AK	8	−10	9
7	TSV Hartberg	7	−3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	−3	8
9	WSG Wattens	8	−4	8
10	Austria Vienna	8	−8	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3