Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg prediction · Bundesliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Grazer AKDrawTSV Hartberg

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:30

Before kick-off · Match result · TSV Hartberg 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with TSV Hartberg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Grazer AK 34%, draw 28%, TSV Hartberg 37%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Grazer AK v TSV HartbergBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Grazer AK win34%

Draw28%

TSV Hartberg win37%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMerkur-Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grazer AK

TSV Hartberg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	TSV Hartberg	10	−3	14
8	Grazer AK	10	−15	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tsv hartberg winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

37% The market25%

Us37%

~~Market~~25%

We make TSV Hartberg a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 25%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Grazer AK v TSV Hartberg~~1.34 – 1.41

~~Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~8 v 6

~~The market · TSV Hartberg win~~25% · ours 37%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · TSV Hartberg win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 37% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 25% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grazer AK win	34%	49%	−15
Draw	28%	25%	+3
TSV Hartberg win	37%	25%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	52%	54%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	33%	−3
Grazer AK or draw	63%	75%	−12
Grazer AK clean sheet	25%	–	–
TSV Hartberg clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 7.8 7.7 6.3 3.0 1 7.3 13.3 8.4 4.0 2 5.8 8.0 5.6 2.7 3 2.6 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grazer AK down, TSV Hartberg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,033 Bundesliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grazer AK at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Grazer AK, 1.41 for TSV Hartberg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~TSV 1–0 GRA · GRA 0–0 TSV · TSV 1–1 GRA · GRA 0–3 TSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 29 Aug

GRAZER AK

DWDDLD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–6 · 1–1

TSV HARTBERG

WDDWLW3–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 4–3 · 1–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	10	+22	27
2	Red Bull Salzburg	9	+17	21
3	Lask Linz	9	+14	19
4	Sturm Graz	9	+6	17
5	Ried	9	+1	14
6	TSV Hartberg	10	−3	14
7	WSG Wattens	10	−2	12
8	Grazer AK	10	−15	10
9	SCR Altach	10	−6	9
10	Austria Lustenau	10	−12	8
11	Austria Vienna	10	−10	7
12	Wolfsberger AC	10	−12	5