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Grazer AK v Red Bull Salzburg

Grazer AK

0–0Full time

Red Bull Salzburg

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Graz-Liebenau

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg RED BULL SALZBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Red Bull Salzburg win~~59%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.977

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.994

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Red Bull Salzburg win at 59%.
2′Much as we predicted: Red Bull Salzburg was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 18–21–60
2′KICK-OFF Grazer AK v Red Bull Salzburg
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 50% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Red Bull Salzburg win: 59% at kick-off, 48% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Grazer AK 0–1 Red Bull Salzburg
45′HALF-TIME Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg
46′SECOND HALF Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Edmund Baidoo · Off: Yorbe Vertessen Corrected
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Abubakr Barry · Red Bull Salzburg
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Abubakr Barry · Red Bull Salzburg
69′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Tim Drexler · Red Bull Salzburg
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Grazer AK · On: Tim Trummer · Off: Christian Lichtenberger Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Bartosz Mazurek · Off: Abubakr Barry Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Grazer AK · On: Petar Markovic · Off: Christopher Cvetko Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Red Bull Salzburg · On: Gaoussou Diakité · Off: Karim Konate Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Grazer AK · On: Ludwig Vraa Jensen · Off: Beres Owusu Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Jacob Italiano · Grazer AK
FTFULL TIME Grazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg
FTGrazer AK 0–0 Red Bull Salzburg · Red Bull Salzburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Grazer AK win18%

Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg win59%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Stadion Graz-Liebenau

Referee · Stefan Ebner

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Grazer AK

3-4-2-1

23 C. Stankovic

82 B. Owusu

21 M. Sollbauer

27 Y. Oberleitner

28 Anderson

34 P. Michorl

24 C. Cvetko

32 L. Klassen

14 J. Italiano

10 C. Lichtenberger

25 A. Hofleitner

Coach · Gerald Scheiblehner

Substitutes

1 · J. Meierhofer

3 · L. Vraa

37 · T. Trummer

72 · P. Markovic

8 · T. Koch

17 · S. Mandey

11 · M. Grosse

9 · D. Maderner

7 · A. Smits

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

1 C. Fruchtl

22 S. Lainer

44 K. Boma

21 T. Drexler

31 D. Schmid

32 A. Barry

13 F. Kratzig

35 J. Lindstrom

8 S. Kitano

11 Y. Vertessen

19 K. Konate

Coach · Danny Rohl

Substitutes

41 · N. Sarcevic

47 · V. Zabransky

7 · U. Tohumcu

15 · B. Mazurek

30 · G. Diakite

9 · H. Tabakovic

33 · A. Camara

20 · E. Baidoo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Grazer AK

3-4-2-1

23 C. Stankovic

82 B. Owusu

21 M. Sollbauer

27 Y. Oberleitner

28 Anderson

34 P. Michorl

24 C. Cvetko

32 L. Klassen

14 J. Italiano

10 C. Lichtenberger

25 A. Hofleitner

Coach · Gerald Scheiblehner

Substitutes

1 · J. Meierhofer

3 · L. Vraa

37 · T. Trummer

72 · P. Markovic

8 · T. Koch

17 · S. Mandey

11 · M. Grosse

9 · D. Maderner

7 · A. Smits

Red Bull Salzburg

4-2-3-1

1 C. Fruchtl

22 S. Lainer

44 K. Boma

21 T. Drexler

31 D. Schmid

32 A. Barry

13 F. Kratzig

35 J. Lindstrom

8 S. Kitano

11 Y. Vertessen

19 K. Konate

Coach · Danny Rohl

Substitutes

41 · N. Sarcevic

47 · V. Zabransky

7 · U. Tohumcu

15 · B. Mazurek

30 · G. Diakite

9 · H. Tabakovic

33 · A. Camara

20 · E. Baidoo

Our number · red bull salzburg winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

59% The market59%

Us59%

~~Market~~59%

We make Red Bull Salzburg a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · red bull salzburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Grazer AK win	18%	19%	−1
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Red Bull Salzburg win	59%	59%	0
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	81%	0
Over 3.5 goals	36%	39%	−4
Grazer AK or draw	41%	41%	0
Grazer AK clean sheet	14%	–	–
Red Bull Salzburg clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 6.0 8.8 9.8 6.7 3.4 1 4.0 10.8 9.7 6.5 3.3 2 2.6 5.0 4.9 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Grazer AK down, Red Bull Salzburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,017 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Grazer AK at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Grazer AK, 2.01 for Red Bull Salzburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GRA 1–1 RED · RED 5–0 GRA · RED 0–0 GRA · GRA 2–3 RED

Form · last six in Bundesliga

GRAZER AK

WLLDWD2–1 · 0–8 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

RED BULL SALZBURG

DWWWDW1–1 · 3–0 · 4–1 · 5–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	7	+14	17
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	−1	11
5	Ried	7	−1	8
6	TSV Hartberg	7	−3	8
7	WSG Wattens	7	−3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	−3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	−10	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	−6	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3