Home › Football › Bundesliga › Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz

Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz

Austria Vienna

0–2Full time

Sturm Graz

Bundesliga · SAT 10 OCT · Generali Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:01

Austria Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz STURM GRAZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sturm Graz win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.529

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.467

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sturm Graz win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Austria Vienna v Sturm Graz
2′Little has changed for our model: Sturm Graz 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 32–26–42
15′Little has changed for our model: Sturm Graz 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Austria Vienna 1–0 Sturm Graz
18′A goal for Austria Vienna on 16′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 31–29–40
32′A goal for Austria Vienna on 16′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 30–34–37
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sturm Graz win 34%)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Austria Vienna 0–1 Sturm Graz
45′HALF-TIME Austria Vienna 0–1 Sturm Graz
46′SECOND HALF Austria Vienna 0–1 Sturm Graz
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Oumar Diakité · Sturm Graz
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Austria Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz · Oumar Diakité
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Sturm Graz · On: Axel Kayombo · Off: Oumar Diakité
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Austria Vienna · On: Julian Hettwer · Off: ibrahim buhari
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Austria Vienna · On: Vasilije Markovic · Off: Philipp Maybach
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Luca Weinhandl · Sturm Graz
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Daniel Nnodim · Austria Vienna
78′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Stephan Helm · Austria Vienna
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sturm Graz · On: Julian Halwachs · Off: Jon Gorenc Stanković
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Austria Vienna · On: Kelvin Owusu Boateng · Off: Sanel Saljic
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Austria Vienna · On: Lee Tae-seok · Off: Daniel Nnodim
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Austria Vienna · On: Florian Wustinger · Off: Manfred Fischer
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sturm Graz · On: Petar Petrović · Off: Jacob Peter Hödl
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Luis Balbo · Sturm Graz
FTFULL TIME Austria Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz
FTAustria Vienna 0–2 Sturm Graz · Sturm Graz win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Austria Vienna win31%

Draw28%

Sturm Graz win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 18:30

Venue · Generali Arena

Referee · Walter Altmann

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Austria Vienna

3-4-2-1

1 S. Sahin-Radlinger

46 J. Handl

15 A. Dragovic

3 I. Buhari

40 D. Nnodim

5 V. Muller

6 P. Maybach

26 R. Ranftl

10 S. Saljic

30 M. Fischer

19 J. Eggestein

Coach · Stephan Helm

Substitutes

99 · M. Kos

17 · Lee Tae-Seok

21 · M. Schablas

4 · J. Feddersen

22 · F. Wustinger

7 · V. Markovic

16 · Lee Kang-Hee

20 · J. Hettwer

14 · K. Boateng

Sturm Graz

3-4-2-1

53 D. Khudyakov

23 A. Malic

2 J. Quarshie

30 P. Koller

43 J. Hodl

4 J. Gorenc Stankovic

39 L. Weinhandl

27 L. Balbo

19 S. Seidl

78 V. Matoshi

14 O. Diakite

Coach · Fabio Ingolitsch

Substitutes

22 · A. Helac

21 · P. Petrovic

35 · N. Geyrhofer

6 · G. Haider

40 · J. Halwachs

26 · B. Beganovic

17 · S. Wlodarczyk

11 · A. Kayombo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Austria Vienna

3-4-2-1

1 S. Sahin-Radlinger

46 J. Handl

15 A. Dragovic

3 I. Buhari

40 D. Nnodim

5 V. Muller

6 P. Maybach

26 R. Ranftl

10 S. Saljic

30 M. Fischer

19 J. Eggestein

Coach · Stephan Helm

Substitutes

99 · M. Kos

17 · Lee Tae-Seok

21 · M. Schablas

4 · J. Feddersen

22 · F. Wustinger

7 · V. Markovic

16 · Lee Kang-Hee

20 · J. Hettwer

14 · K. Boateng

Sturm Graz

3-4-2-1

53 D. Khudyakov

23 A. Malic

2 J. Quarshie

30 P. Koller

43 J. Hodl

4 J. Gorenc Stankovic

39 L. Weinhandl

27 L. Balbo

19 S. Seidl

78 V. Matoshi

14 O. Diakite

Coach · Fabio Ingolitsch

Substitutes

22 · A. Helac

21 · P. Petrovic

35 · N. Geyrhofer

6 · G. Haider

40 · J. Halwachs

26 · B. Beganovic

17 · S. Wlodarczyk

11 · A. Kayombo

Our number · sturm graz winPublished 10 Oct 18:40

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Sturm Graz a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sturm graz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 45% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austria Vienna win	31%	29%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Sturm Graz win	41%	44%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Austria Vienna or draw	59%	56%	+4
Austria Vienna clean sheet	24%	–	–
Sturm Graz clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 8.1 8.5 7.1 3.4 1 7.2 13.4 8.8 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.5 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Vienna down, Sturm Graz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,017 Bundesliga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 3.28 goals a meeting; 13 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austria Vienna at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sturm Graz away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Austria Vienna, 1.45 for Sturm Graz. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.28

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 18

~~Both scored~~12 of 18

~~Last meetings~~STU 1–1 AUS · AUS 2–5 STU · AUS 3–1 STU · STU 0–1 AUS

Form · last six in Bundesliga

AUSTRIA VIENNA

LWLLWD0–2 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2

STURM GRAZ

WWDLWL2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	+14	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	7	+14	17
3	Lask Linz	7	+12	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	−1	11
5	Ried	7	−1	8
6	TSV Hartberg	7	−3	8
7	WSG Wattens	7	−3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	−3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	−10	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	−6	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	−6	5
12	SCR Altach	7	−7	3