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Austria Lustenau v Lask Linz

Austria Lustenau
0–4Full time
Lask Linz

Bundesliga · SAT 17 OCT · Planet Pure Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Austria Lustenau 0–4 Lask Linz LASK LINZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Lask Linz win52%
The market said69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.344
The market’s Brier score0.147

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lask Linz win at 52%.
  2. 2′Much as we predicted: Lask Linz was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 23–25–52
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Austria Lustenau v Lask Linz
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Danilo Soares · Austria Lustenau
  5. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Lask Linz win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Austria Lustenau 0–0 Lask Linz
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Austria Lustenau 0–0 Lask Linz
  8. 46′Lask Linz have had 10 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 22–37–41
  9. 48′We said Lask Linz at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 21–38–40
  10. 51′We said Lask Linz at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 21–40–39
  11. 52′Lask Linz have had 12 attempts to 0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 21–40–39
  12. 55′We expected about 3.0 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 20–42–37
  13. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Lask Linz win 37%)
  14. 56′We published Lask Linz at 52%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  15. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Austria Lustenau 0–1 Lask Linz
  16. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Lask Linz win: 52% at kick-off, 80% now
  17. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Lask Linz win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 16%)
  18. 57′Lask Linz ahead on 56′ through Sasa Kalajdzic. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–16–80
  19. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Florian Flecker · Lask Linz
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Lask Linz win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 64′We published Lask Linz at 52%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
  22. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Austria Lustenau 0–2 Lask Linz
  23. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Lask Linz win: 52% at kick-off, 97% now
  24. 65′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–97
  25. 66′Samuel Adeniran scores for Lask Linz on 64′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
  26. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lask Linz · On: Andres Andrade · Off: Melayro Bogarde
  27. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lask Linz · On: Kasper Jorgensen · Off: Florian Flecker
  28. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Lask Linz · On: Xavier Mbuyamba · Off: João Victor Tornich
  29. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Austria Lustenau · On: Albin Gashi · Off: Alieu Conateh
  30. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Austria Lustenau · On: Seydou Diarra · Off: Matthias Maak
  31. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lask Linz · On: Christoph Lang · Off: Samuel Adeniran
  32. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Austria Lustenau · On: Emmanuel Chukwu · Off: Niklas Pertlwieser
  33. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Austria Lustenau · On: Precious Benjamin · Off: Antonio Verinac
  34. 82′We published Lask Linz at 52%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  35. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Lask Linz · On: Naël Mamadou Lamine Kane · Off: Sasa Kalajdzic
  36. 88′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  37. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Austria Lustenau 0–3 Lask Linz
  38. 90′88′: Christoph Lang on the scoresheet for Lask Linz, making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  39. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Austria Lustenau · On: Pius Grabher · Off: Lord Afrifa
  40. 94′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  41. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Austria Lustenau 0–4 Lask Linz
  42. FTFULL TIME Austria Lustenau 0–4 Lask Linz
  43. FTAustria Lustenau 0–4 Lask Linz · Lask Linz win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lask Linz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austria Lustenau 23%, draw 25%, Lask Linz 52%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Austria Lustenau v Lask LinzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Austria Lustenau win23%
Draw25%
Lask Linz win52%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePlanet Pure Stadion

RefereeEmil Ristoskov

Line-ups

Austria Lustenau

5-4-1

Lask Linz

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austria Lustenau

Lask Linz

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · the Austrian Bundesliga

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Lask Linz8+1016
8Austria Lustenau8−48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Austria Lustenau

5-4-1

27 D. Schierl

21 Anilson

18 R. Voisine

31 M. Maak

29 N. Pertlwieser

3 Danilo Soares

11 D. Weixelbraun

20 L. Afrifa

8 D. Kacuri

10 Alieu Conateh

39 A. Verinac

Coach · M. Mader

Substitutes

14 · P. Benjamin

30 · P. Böhm

15 · E. Chukwu

24 · S. Diarra

17 · A. Gashi

7 · F. Gmeiner

23 · P. Grabher

26 · L. Ibertsberger

9 · L. Jastremski

Lask Linz

3-4-1-2

1 L. Jungwirth

23 Daniel Elfadli

43 Alemão

3 M. Freckleton

29 F. Flecker

6 M. Bogarde

30 S. Horvath

25 Y. Dibango

10 R. Ljubičić

11 S. Kalajdzic

7 S. Adeniran

Coach · D. Kühbauer

Substitutes

33 · T. Schützenauer

18 · A. Schöpf

20 · K. Jørgensen

4 · X. Mbuyamba

27 · C. Lang

45 · N. Kane

9 · K. Daněk

16 · A. Andrade

21 · M. Verhaeghe

Our number · lask linz winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
52% The market69%
Us52%
Market69%

We make Lask Linz a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Austria Lustenau v Lask Linz1.16 – 1.84
Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 14 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 8 v 168 v 3
The market · Lask Linz win69% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 15:01
Our probability · Lask Linz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Austria Lustenau win23%12%+11
Draw25%19%+6
Lask Linz win52%69%−17
Over 2.5 goals57%67%−10
Both teams to score58%58%0
Over 1.5 goals81%85%−4
Over 3.5 goals35%47%−12
Austria Lustenau or draw48%31%+17
Austria Lustenau clean sheet16%––
Lask Linz clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.3 8.1 8.5 5.2 2.4 1 4.6 11.7 9.7 5.9 2.7 2 3.3 6.1 5.6 3.4 3 2.4 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Lustenau down, Lask Linz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.25
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsAUS 1–3 LAS · LAS 2–0 AUS · LAS 1–0 AUS · AUS 1–1 LAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Bundesliga this season · since 14 Aug

AUSTRIA LUSTENAU

WDLLWL2–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 3–4

LASK LINZ

WWWLDL4–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Rapid Vienna9+1824
2Red Bull Salzburg8+1418
3Lask Linz8+1016
4Sturm Graz8+114
5Ried8011
6TSV Hartberg9−411
7Grazer AK8−109
8Austria Lustenau8−48
9WSG Wattens8−48
10Austria Vienna8−87
11SCR Altach8−46
12Wolfsberger AC8−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.