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WSPG Wels v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

WSPG Wels

1–0Full time

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

2. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Huber-Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

WSPG Wels 1–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz WSPG WELS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said WSPG Wels win~~50%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.383

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.706

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said WSPG Wels win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: WSPG Wels was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–22–28
1′KICK-OFF WSPG Wels v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
12′SUBSTITUTION · 9' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: D. Araki · Off: N. Rossi
45′HALF-TIME WSPG Wels 0–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
48′SECOND HALF WSPG Wels 0–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' WSPG Wels
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' WSPG Wels
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' WSPG Wels 1–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' WSPG Wels · On: Y. Mankan · Off: C. Wernitznig
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: Rodrigo Souza · Off: Y. Shima
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: L. Sealey · Off: Gabryel
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' WSPG Wels · On: M. Brugger · Off: M. Thurnwald
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' WSPG Wels · On: P. Muller · Off: N. Freund
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' A. Zaizen · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' WSPG Wels
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: Joao Cesco · Off: William Rodrigues
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: G. Davies · Off: A. Fetahu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: Joao Cesco · Off: William Rodrigues
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: G. Davies · Off: A. Fetahu
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' WSPG Wels · On: M. Svec · Off: I. Drammeh
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' WSPG Wels · On: N. Keckeisen · Off: P. Gobara
FTFULL TIME WSPG Wels 1–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
FTWSPG Wels 1–0 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · WSPG Wels win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

WSPG Wels win50%

Draw22%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Huber-Arena

Referee · J. Schnur

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

WSPG Wels

Formation not confirmed

44 K. Schrocker

13 M. Thurnwald

14 L. Tischler

23 S. Haudum

28 P. Gobara

22 O. Kregar

9 I. Drammeh

40 N. Freund

10 T. Sahin

24 C. Wernitznig

20 S. Malinowski

Coach · Christian Heinle

Substitutes

5 · N. Keckeisen

6 · P. Muller

7 · M. Svec

8 · K. Camara

11 · Y. Mankan

12 · M. Brugger

33 · M. Schrenk

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Aizawa

22 D. Au Yeong

3 William Rodrigues

6 Y. Shima

4 D. Kelly

14 G. Omotehara

8 L. Nussbaumer

20 Gabryel

24 A. Zaizen

10 A. Fetahu

7 N. Rossi

Coach · Martin Brenner

Substitutes

1 · Joao Paulo

16 · Rodrigo Souza

18 · D. Araki

23 · L. Sealey

25 · G. Davies

43 · Joao Cesco

47 · L. Dantas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

WSPG Wels

Formation not confirmed

44 K. Schrocker

13 M. Thurnwald

14 L. Tischler

23 S. Haudum

28 P. Gobara

22 O. Kregar

9 I. Drammeh

40 N. Freund

10 T. Sahin

24 C. Wernitznig

20 S. Malinowski

Coach · Christian Heinle

Substitutes

5 · N. Keckeisen

6 · P. Muller

7 · M. Svec

8 · K. Camara

11 · Y. Mankan

12 · M. Brugger

33 · M. Schrenk

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Aizawa

22 D. Au Yeong

3 William Rodrigues

6 Y. Shima

4 D. Kelly

14 G. Omotehara

8 L. Nussbaumer

20 Gabryel

24 A. Zaizen

10 A. Fetahu

7 N. Rossi

Coach · Martin Brenner

Substitutes

1 · Joao Paulo

16 · Rodrigo Souza

18 · D. Araki

23 · L. Sealey

25 · G. Davies

43 · Joao Cesco

47 · L. Dantas

Our number · wspg wels winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

50% The market32%

Us50%

~~Market~~32%

We make WSPG Wels a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · wspg wels win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
WSPG Wels win	50%	32%	+18
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win	29%	42%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	66%	56%	+10
Both teams to score	65%	60%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	78%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	44%	35%	+9
WSPG Wels or draw	71%	58%	+13
WSPG Wels clean sheet	24%	–	–
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.8 3.5 1 6.5 9.4 6.7 3.2 2 6.4 9.0 6.5 3.1 3 4.2 5.9 4.2 2.1 4 2.1 2.9 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+WSPG Wels down, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 2. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

WSPG Wels at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz away: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for WSPG Wels, 1.45 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SCH 2–3 WSP · WSP 1–1 SCH

Form · last six in 2. Liga

WSPG WELS

WLDLLL3–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–4 · 1–3

SCHWARZ-WEISS BREGENZ

WDWLWL3–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	8	+16	19
2	First Vienna	8	+9	19
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	8	+3	15
4	SKU Amstetten	8	+3	13
5	Floridsdorfer AC	7	+3	13
6	Wacker Innsbruck	7	+2	11
7	Austria Salzburg	7	+2	10
8	FC Liefering	7	−1	10
9	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	7	−1	10
10	Admira Wacker	7	−1	9
11	Voitsberg	7	−2	9
12	SKN ST. Polten	8	−2	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	−3	8
14	Rapid Wien II	7	−10	6
15	WSPG Wels	7	−9	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	8	−9	3