Wacker Innsbruck v Austria Salzburg prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01

Wacker Innsbruck 0–1 Austria Salzburg WACKER INNSBRUCK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Wacker Innsbruck win~~44%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.735

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Wacker Innsbruck win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Wacker Innsbruck 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Wacker Innsbruck v Austria Salzburg
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' A. Lechl · Wacker Innsbruck
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Austria Salzburg
45′HALF-TIME Wacker Innsbruck 0–0 Austria Salzburg
45′SECOND HALF Wacker Innsbruck 0–0 Austria Salzburg
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Wacker Innsbruck win 35%)
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Wacker Innsbruck win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′We said Wacker Innsbruck at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Wacker Innsbruck 0–1 Austria Salzburg
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Wacker Innsbruck win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Austria Salzburg win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
53′A goal for Austria Salzburg on 53′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
55′C. Gebauer scores for Austria Salzburg on 52′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–23–68
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Austria Salzburg
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Austria Salzburg
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Wacker Innsbruck · On: B. Owusu · Off: L. Gstrein
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Austria Salzburg · On: L. Kronberger · Off: T. Crnkic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Wacker Innsbruck · On: R. Galle · Off: D. Francis
68′We said Wacker Innsbruck at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Wacker Innsbruck win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Austria Salzburg · On: N. Lukasser Weitlaner · Off: S. Spitali
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wacker Innsbruck · On: M. Kochl · Off: M. Evans
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wacker Innsbruck · On: G. Biancheri · Off: R. Littig
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Wacker Innsbruck · On: A. Wibowo · Off: A. Lechl
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Austria Salzburg · On: C. Gruber · Off: M. Rottensteiner
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Wacker Innsbruck 1–1 Austria Salzburg
90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Austria Salzburg win 4%)
91′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+1' Wacker Innsbruck
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Austria Salzburg win is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Draw 4%)
FTFULL TIME Wacker Innsbruck 0–1 Austria Salzburg
FTWacker Innsbruck 0–1 Austria Salzburg · Wacker Innsbruck win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Wacker Innsbruck are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wacker Innsbruck 44%, draw 25%, Austria Salzburg 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Wacker Innsbruck v Austria SalzburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Wacker Innsbruck win44%

Draw25%

Austria Salzburg win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion Tivoli NEU

RefereeA. Untergasser

Line-ups

Wacker Innsbruck

Austria Salzburg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wacker Innsbruck

Austria Salzburg

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Wacker Innsbruck	8	+3	14
6	Austria Salzburg	8	+3	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Wacker Innsbruck

Formation not confirmed

33 J. Kirchmayr

16 A. Joppich

5 P. Kunze

19 F. Kopp

21 R. Littig

4 D. Francis

15 M. Sy

18 A. Lechl

8 M. Evans

22 L. Gstrein

99 Y. Guermouche

Coach · Sebastian Siller

Substitutes

1 · L. Tauber

2 · M. Kochl

6 · M. Petutschnig

11 · R. Galle

20 · G. Biancheri

24 · B. Owusu

7 · A. Wibowo

Austria Salzburg

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Nesler-Taubl

60 S. Pirkl

55 L. Meisl

19 R. Hofer

2 T. Rohrmoser

10 F. Rieder

8 M. Rottensteiner

3 S. Spitali

71 C. Gebauer

70 T. Crnkic

11 C. Huetz

Coach · Christian Schaider

Substitutes

13 · P. Bauer

14 · C. Gruber

9 · N. Lukasser Weitlaner

6 · T. Schandl

5 · L. Schweighofer

15 · L. Kronberger

7 · M. Mahmoud

Our number · wacker innsbruck winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

44% The market41%

Us44%

~~Market~~41%

We make Wacker Innsbruck a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wacker Innsbruck v Austria Salzburg~~1.56 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 13~~4 v 6

~~The market · Wacker Innsbruck win~~41% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Wacker Innsbruck win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wacker Innsbruck win	44%	41%	+3
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Austria Salzburg win	31%	32%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	52%	+1
Both teams to score	56%	57%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	75%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	31%	32%	−1
Wacker Innsbruck or draw	69%	68%	+1
Wacker Innsbruck clean sheet	29%	–	–
Austria Salzburg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 7.6 4.8 2.0 1 9.4 11.5 7.2 3.1 2 7.3 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wacker Innsbruck down, Austria Salzburg across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 2. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Wacker Innsbruck at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Austria Salzburg away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Wacker Innsbruck, 1.26 for Austria Salzburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 Aug

WACKER INNSBRUCK

WWLDDW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

AUSTRIA SALZBURG

LWLDLW1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	8	+16	19
2	First Vienna	8	+9	19
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	8	+3	15
4	Wacker Innsbruck	8	+3	14
5	Floridsdorfer AC	8	+2	13
6	Austria Salzburg	8	+3	13
7	SKU Amstetten	8	+3	13
8	FC Liefering	8	+1	13
9	Admira Wacker	8	0	12
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	8	−2	10
11	SKN ST. Polten	8	−2	9
12	Voitsberg	8	−3	9
13	Sturm Graz II	8	−5	8
14	WSPG Wels	8	−8	7
15	Rapid Wien II	8	−11	6
16	SV Kapfenberg	8	−9	3