Voitsberg v First Vienna prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 20:01

Voitsberg 1–2 First Vienna FIRST VIENNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said First Vienna win~~43%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.491

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.481

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said First Vienna win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: First Vienna was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
1′KICK-OFF Voitsberg v First Vienna
11′SUBSTITUTION · 10' First Vienna · On: T. Gruber · Off: R. Marte
15′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Voitsberg
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Voitsberg 0–1 First Vienna
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
17′First Vienna find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
20′A goal for Voitsberg on 20′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–31–40
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Voitsberg 1–1 First Vienna
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 40% now
30′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 8–19–72
30′First Vienna score on 30′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 8–19–72
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Voitsberg 1–2 First Vienna
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' First Vienna
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Voitsberg
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' First Vienna
45′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
45′HALF-TIME Voitsberg 1–2 First Vienna
46′SECOND HALF Voitsberg 1–2 First Vienna
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Voitsberg · On: D. Goriupp · Off: A. Radics
62′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' First Vienna · On: B. Luxbacher · Off: D. Ungar
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' First Vienna · On: C. Monschein · Off: L. Edelhofer
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Voitsberg
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Voitsberg · On: E. Neubauer · Off: M. Polster
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
73′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' First Vienna
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' First Vienna · On: M. Fillafer · Off: B. Zimmermann
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' First Vienna · On: T. Anselm · Off: Y. Soukouna
80′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Voitsberg · On: C. Wolbl · Off: P. Jager
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' First Vienna win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
87′We published First Vienna at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Voitsberg · On: L. Zivanovic · Off: D. Saurer
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Voitsberg
89′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Voitsberg · On: A. Karic · Off: T. Brukk
FTFULL TIME Voitsberg 1–2 First Vienna
FTVoitsberg 1–2 First Vienna · First Vienna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

First Vienna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Voitsberg 30%, draw 27%, First Vienna 43%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Voitsberg v First ViennaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Voitsberg win30%

Draw27%

First Vienna win43%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMunzer Bioindustrie Sportpark Voitsberg

RefereeJ. Spurny

Line-ups

Voitsberg

First Vienna

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Voitsberg

First Vienna

5Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	First Vienna	8	+9	19
12	Voitsberg	8	−3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Voitsberg

Formation not confirmed

36 F. Dmitrovic

44 A. Stevanovic

3 N. Vakouftsis

4 A. Mustafic

77 T. Brukk

19 K. Stratznig

6 D. Saurer

46 M. Polster

80 A. Radics

9 F. Schubert

7 P. Jager

Coach · Philipp Zulechner

Substitutes

1 · T. Stopajnik

10 · C. Wolbl

23 · L. Zivanovic

27 · A. Karic

28 · J. Schriebl

30 · D. Goriupp

39 · E. Neubauer

First Vienna

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Unger

23 M. Gantschnig

4 P. Breit

24 R. Marte

25 J. Bauer

19 F. Prohart

66 D. Ungar

17 B. Rosenberger

11 Y. Soukouna

18 B. Zimmermann

77 L. Edelhofer

Coach · Patrick Enengl

Substitutes

7 · C. Monschein

8 · B. Luxbacher

10 · T. Anselm

22 · T. Gruber

26 · M. Fillafer

32 · F. Luckeneder

33 · K. Kretschmer

Our number · first vienna winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:07 · locked at kick-off

43% The market43%

Us43%

~~Market~~43%

We make First Vienna a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Voitsberg v First Vienna~~1.12 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 19~~12 v 2

~~The market · First Vienna win~~43% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · First Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Voitsberg win	30%	30%	0
Draw	27%	26%	+1
First Vienna win	43%	43%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Both teams to score	50%	58%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	71%	76%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	24%	33%	−9
Voitsberg or draw	57%	57%	0
Voitsberg clean sheet	26%	–	–
First Vienna clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.5 11.4 7.8 3.6 1 9.2 12.5 8.5 4.0 2 5.2 7.0 4.8 2.2 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Voitsberg down, First Vienna across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 2. Liga matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2020/21 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Voitsberg at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). First Vienna away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for Voitsberg, 1.38 for First Vienna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2020/21

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VOI 0–2 FIR · FIR 1–0 VOI · VOI 1–1 FIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 Aug

VOITSBERG

DLLDWL0–0 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–3

FIRST VIENNA

DWWWWW2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	8	+16	19
2	First Vienna	8	+9	19
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	8	+3	15
4	Wacker Innsbruck	8	+3	14
5	Floridsdorfer AC	8	+2	13
6	Austria Salzburg	8	+3	13
7	SKU Amstetten	8	+3	13
8	FC Liefering	8	+1	13
9	Admira Wacker	8	0	12
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	8	−2	10
11	SKN ST. Polten	8	−2	9
12	Voitsberg	8	−3	9
13	Sturm Graz II	8	−5	8
14	WSPG Wels	8	−8	7
15	Rapid Wien II	8	−11	6
16	SV Kapfenberg	8	−9	3