SV Kapfenberg v SKN ST. Polten prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

SV Kapfenberg 1–1 SKN ST. Polten SKN ST. POLTEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said SKN ST. Polten win~~49%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.882

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SKN ST. Polten win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: SKN ST. Polten was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 27–25–49
1′KICK-OFF SV Kapfenberg v SKN ST. Polten
14′SV Kapfenberg score on 14′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 54–24–23
14′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 54–24–23
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' SV Kapfenberg 1–0 SKN ST. Polten
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' SV Kapfenberg win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was SKN ST. Polten win 47%)
26′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 56–25–19
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 57–25–18
42′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–25–14
45′HALF-TIME SV Kapfenberg 1–0 SKN ST. Polten
46′SECOND HALF SV Kapfenberg 1–0 SKN ST. Polten
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SKN ST. Polten · On: W. Amoah · Off: T. Altersberger
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' SV Kapfenberg
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SKN ST. Polten · On: D. Gabriel Jesus · Off: L. Hartwig
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' SKN ST. Polten
56′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
56′SKN ST. Polten find the net on 56′. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–44–34
56′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' SV Kapfenberg 1–1 SKN ST. Polten
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 34% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was SV Kapfenberg win 66%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SKN ST. Polten · On: J. Wanner · Off: L. Gabbichler
64′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–51–29
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' SV Kapfenberg · On: A. Marinovic · Off: J. Rostas
65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' SV Kapfenberg · On: F. Stauder · Off: B. Heuser
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SV Kapfenberg · On: A. Sokcevic · Off: R. Zlibanovic
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' SKN ST. Polten · On: P. Rupp · Off: M. Kolodziejczyk
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' SKN ST. Polten win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' SV Kapfenberg
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' SV Kapfenberg · On: P. Weissenbacher · Off: B. Potnar
91′We said SKN ST. Polten at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME SV Kapfenberg 1–1 SKN ST. Polten
FTSV Kapfenberg 1–1 SKN ST. Polten · SKN ST. Polten win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SKN ST. Polten are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SV Kapfenberg 27%, draw 24%, SKN ST. Polten 49%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on SV Kapfenberg v SKN ST. PoltenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SV Kapfenberg win27%

Draw24%

SKN ST. Polten win49%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAlpenstadion

RefereeM. Baumann

Line-ups

SV Kapfenberg

4-2-3-1

SKN ST. Polten

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SV Kapfenberg

SKN ST. Polten

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SV Kapfenberg

4-2-3-1

12 Vinko Colic

71 Thomas Maier

38 Emmanuel Ojukwu

33 Erblin Thaqi

23 Mukhran Bagrationi

5 Meletios Mišković

24 Rajan Zlibanovic

7 Marcel Stoger

18 Jose Rostas

30 Ben Heuser

80 Bojan Potnar

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · Adrian Marinovic

35 · Felix Stauder

10 · Antonio Luci Sokcevic

17 · Philip Weissenbacher

41 · Noah Habel

14 · Marco Pranjkovic

3 · Lorenzo Coco

SKN ST. Polten

3-5-2

1 Christopher Knett

4 Niklas Szerencsi

15 Sondre Skogen

6 Alexandar Borković

18 Timo Altersberger

27 Marek Kolodziejczyk

34 Leomend Krasniqi

10 Marc Stendera

22 El Hadji Mané

28 Luis Hartwig

11 Lukas Gabbichler

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · Winfred Amoah

45 · Gabriel Jesus David

77 · Jannik Wanner

19 · Patrizio Rupp

32 · Marcel Kurz

20 · Julian Halmich

5 · Lukas Buchegger

Our number · skn st. polten winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

49% The market61%

Us49%

~~Market~~61%

We make SKN ST. Polten a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SV Kapfenberg v SKN ST. Polten~~1.18 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 10~~16 v 11

~~The market · SKN ST. Polten win~~61% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SKN ST. Polten win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Kapfenberg win	27%	18%	+9
Draw	24%	21%	+3
SKN ST. Polten win	49%	61%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	54%	65%	−11
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	84%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	45%	−13
SV Kapfenberg or draw	51%	39%	+12
SV Kapfenberg clean sheet	19%	–	–
SKN ST. Polten clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.1 9.6 8.1 4.5 1 6.8 11.4 9.3 5.2 2.2 2 4.1 6.6 5.5 3.1 3 2.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Kapfenberg down, SKN ST. Polten across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 2. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Kapfenberg at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). SKN ST. Polten away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for SV Kapfenberg, 1.67 for SKN ST. Polten. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 17:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SVK 0–3 SKN · SKN 2–1 SVK · SKN 3–1 SVK · SVK 2–0 SKN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

SV KAPFENBERG

LWLLLW2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–1 · 2–0

SKN ST. POLTEN

LWWWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	9	+19	22
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	+4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	−4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	−8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6