Home › Football › 2. Liga › SV Kapfenberg v Austria Vienna (Am)

SV Kapfenberg v Austria Vienna (Am)

SV Kapfenberg

0–1Full time

Austria Vienna (Am)

2. Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Alpenstadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

SV Kapfenberg 0–1 Austria Vienna (Am) SV KAPFENBERG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SV Kapfenberg win~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.615

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SV Kapfenberg win at 40%.
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' SV Kapfenberg win: 40% at kick-off, 16% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Austria Vienna (Am) win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was SV Kapfenberg win 16%)
45′HALF-TIME SV Kapfenberg 0–1 Austria Vienna (Am)
46′SECOND HALF SV Kapfenberg 0–1 Austria Vienna (Am)
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SV Kapfenberg · On: T. Maier · Off: N. Zikovic
53′🟨 YELLOW · 48' B. Jerabek · Austria Vienna (Am)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: N. Polonkai · Off: R. Morth
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: H. Deshishku · Off: B. Jerabek
67′⚽ GOAL · 15' SV Kapfenberg 0–1 Austria Vienna (Am) · B. Jerabek
67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' SV Kapfenberg · On: T. Maier · Off: N. Zikovic
67′🟨 YELLOW · 48' B. Jerabek · Austria Vienna (Am)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: N. Polonkai · Off: R. Morth
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: H. Deshishku · Off: B. Jerabek
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SV Kapfenberg · On: F. Stauder · Off: A. Sokcevic
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' SV Kapfenberg · On: M. Pranjkovic · Off: M. Bagrationi
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Austria Vienna (Am)
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' SV Kapfenberg
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' SV Kapfenberg
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Austria Vienna (Am)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' SV Kapfenberg
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: M. Osterreicher · Off: I. Menshykov
FTSV Kapfenberg 0–1 Austria Vienna (Am) · SV Kapfenberg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

SV Kapfenberg win40%

Draw24%

Austria Vienna (Am) win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Alpenstadion

Referee · A. Untergasser

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

SV Kapfenberg

4-2-3-1

12 V. Colic

17 P. Weissenbacher

19 N. Zikovic

38 E. Ojukwu

23 M. Bagrationi

7 M. Stoger

5 M. Miskovic

80 B. Potnar

24 R. Zlibanovic

18 J. Rostas

10 A. Sokcevic

Coach · Michael Liendl

Substitutes

41 · N. Habel

14 · M. Pranjkovic

35 · F. Stauder

42 · F. Krautler

71 · T. Maier

3 · L. Coco

31 · N. R. Dubov

Austria Vienna (Am)

4-2-3-1

1 S. Blazevic

42 L. Stockl

55 F. Fischer

2 W. Vorsager

17 J. Roider

8 D. Nisandzic

10 R. Morth

11 M. Brandt

30 B. Jerabek

7 M. Hausjell

25 I. Menshykov

Coach · Maximilian Uhlig

Substitutes

13 · M. Alphonsus

3 · O. Ivanovic

77 · M. Osterreicher

22 · T. Baotic

23 · N. Polonkai

39 · V. Adjei

9 · H. Deshishku

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

SV Kapfenberg

4-2-3-1

12 V. Colic

17 P. Weissenbacher

19 N. Zikovic

38 E. Ojukwu

23 M. Bagrationi

7 M. Stoger

5 M. Miskovic

80 B. Potnar

24 R. Zlibanovic

18 J. Rostas

10 A. Sokcevic

Coach · Michael Liendl

Substitutes

41 · N. Habel

14 · M. Pranjkovic

35 · F. Stauder

42 · F. Krautler

71 · T. Maier

3 · L. Coco

31 · N. R. Dubov

Austria Vienna (Am)

4-2-3-1

1 S. Blazevic

42 L. Stockl

55 F. Fischer

2 W. Vorsager

17 J. Roider

8 D. Nisandzic

10 R. Morth

11 M. Brandt

30 B. Jerabek

7 M. Hausjell

25 I. Menshykov

Coach · Maximilian Uhlig

Substitutes

13 · M. Alphonsus

3 · O. Ivanovic

77 · M. Osterreicher

22 · T. Baotic

23 · N. Polonkai

39 · V. Adjei

9 · H. Deshishku

Our number · sv kapfenberg winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make SV Kapfenberg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sv kapfenberg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SV Kapfenberg win	40%	32%	+7
Draw	24%	25%	−2
Austria Vienna (Am) win	37%	42%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+1
Both teams to score	62%	62%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	39%	−1
SV Kapfenberg or draw	63%	58%	+5
SV Kapfenberg clean sheet	22%	–	–
Austria Vienna (Am) clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.7 6.8 5.2 2.6 1 7.1 10.8 8.0 4.1 2 5.7 8.4 6.3 3.2 3 3.0 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SV Kapfenberg down, Austria Vienna (Am) across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 2. Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.33 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SV Kapfenberg at home: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Austria Vienna (Am) away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for SV Kapfenberg, 1.52 for Austria Vienna (Am). Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 17:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AUS 1–2 SVK · SVK 1–2 AUS · SVK 4–2 AUS · AUS 2–2 SVK

Form · last six in 2. Liga

SV KAPFENBERG

LLLWLL2–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–4

AUSTRIA VIENNA (AM)

WWLWLW1–0 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	7	+16	18
2	First Vienna	7	+7	16
3	Floridsdorfer AC	7	+3	13
4	SKU Amstetten	7	+3	12
5	Austria Vienna (Am)	7	+2	12
6	Wacker Innsbruck	7	+2	11
7	Austria Salzburg	7	+2	10
8	FC Liefering	7	−1	10
9	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	7	−1	10
10	SKN ST. Polten	7	0	9
11	Admira Wacker	7	−1	9
12	Voitsberg	7	−2	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	−3	8
14	Rapid Wien II	7	−10	6
15	WSPG Wels	7	−9	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	7	−8	3