SKU Amstetten v Rapid Wien II prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

SKU Amstetten 3–2 Rapid Wien II SKU AMSTETTEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said SKU Amstetten win~~55%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.219

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said SKU Amstetten win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: SKU Amstetten 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
1′KICK-OFF SKU Amstetten v Rapid Wien II
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Rapid Wien II
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Rapid Wien II
33′SKU Amstetten find the net on 33′. 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′We said SKU Amstetten at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' SKU Amstetten 1–0 Rapid Wien II
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' SKU Amstetten win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
40′A goal for SKU Amstetten on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
40′We said SKU Amstetten at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' SKU Amstetten 2–0 Rapid Wien II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' SKU Amstetten win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME SKU Amstetten 2–0 Rapid Wien II
46′D. Peham scores for SKU Amstetten on 39′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′We said SKU Amstetten at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' SKU Amstetten win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rapid Wien II · On: E. Rahmani · Off: E. Jakupi
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rapid Wien II · On: D. Berger · Off: D. Polke
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rapid Wien II · On: P. Moizi · Off: N. Jozepovic
46′SECOND HALF SKU Amstetten 2–0 Rapid Wien II
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Rapid Wien II
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' SKU Amstetten · On: J. Steiger · Off: P. Lipczinski
67′SKU Amstetten score on 67′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' SKU Amstetten 3–0 Rapid Wien II
68′We said SKU Amstetten at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′Rapid Wien II find the net on 72′. 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' SKU Amstetten 3–1 Rapid Wien II
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–1–0
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SKU Amstetten · On: T. Mayer · Off: D. Peham
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' SKU Amstetten · On: L. Lanthaler · Off: S. Wimmer
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Rapid Wien II · On: D. Vincze · Off: E. Tutunci
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' SKU Amstetten
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Rapid Wien II · On: A. Riegel · Off: D. Djezic
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Rapid Wien II
90′A goal for Rapid Wien II on 89′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 96–4–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 96–4–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' SKU Amstetten 3–2 Rapid Wien II
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' SKU Amstetten
FTFULL TIME SKU Amstetten 3–2 Rapid Wien II
FTSKU Amstetten 3–2 Rapid Wien II · SKU Amstetten win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SKU Amstetten are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SKU Amstetten 55%, draw 22%, Rapid Wien II 23%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on SKU Amstetten v Rapid Wien IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

SKU Amstetten win55%

Draw22%

Rapid Wien II win23%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueErtl Glas Stadion

RefereeS. Sampl

Line-ups

SKU Amstetten

3-4-1-2

Rapid Wien II

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SKU Amstetten

Rapid Wien II

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SKU Amstetten

3-4-1-2

1 Tiago Estêvão

12 Lukas Deinhofer

15 Philipp Offenthaler

4 Luca Wimhofer

2 Felix Köchl

6 Florent Hajdini

20 Yannick Votter

45 Vincent Augustus

18 Sebastian Wimmer

7 Paul Lipczinski

9 David Peham

Coach · –

Substitutes

10 · Joshua Steiger

24 · Laurenz Lanthaler

16 · Thomas Mayer

23 · Thomas Turner

19 · Brandon Pursall

22 · Jonas Ablinger

11 · Felix Schönegger

Rapid Wien II

4-2-3-1

49 Laurenz Orgler

15 Daniel Mahiya

47 Amin Gröller

6 Keneth Yeboah

61 Emirhan Tütünci

41 David Polke

8 Ousmane Thiero

37 Daris Djezic

28 Lorenz Szladits

16 Edin Jakupi

26 Nicolas Jozepovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · Edvin Rahmani

9 · Philipp Moizi

21 · David Berger

63 · Dominic Vincze

77 · Adrian Riegel

44 · Manuel Fellner

32 · Svetozár Ozvold

Our number · sku amstetten winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

55% The market62%

Us55%

~~Market~~62%

We make SKU Amstetten a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · SKU Amstetten v Rapid Wien II~~1.99 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 14 v 7~~6 v 15

~~The market · SKU Amstetten win~~62% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · SKU Amstetten win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
SKU Amstetten win	55%	62%	−7
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Rapid Wien II win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	70%	−8
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	40%	50%	−10
SKU Amstetten or draw	77%	82%	−5
SKU Amstetten clean sheet	30%	–	–
Rapid Wien II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 4.4 4.9 3.0 1 8.1 9.9 5.9 2.4 2 8.0 9.6 5.8 2.3 3 5.3 6.3 3.8 4 2.7 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+SKU Amstetten down, Rapid Wien II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 2. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

SKU Amstetten at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rapid Wien II away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for SKU Amstetten, 1.21 for Rapid Wien II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAP 4–1 SKU · SKU 3–1 RAP · SKU 2–2 RAP · RAP 1–0 SKU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

SKU AMSTETTEN

DLWWDD1–1 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 4–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

RAPID WIEN II

LLLLLD0–2 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	9	+19	22
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	+4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	−4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	−8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6