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Model 1.2

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Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU Amstetten

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
0–0Full time
SKU Amstetten

2. Liga · SAT 17 OCT · ImmoAgentur Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 0–0 SKU Amstetten SKU AMSTETTEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SKU Amstetten win45%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.912
The market’s Brier score0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SKU Amstetten win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: SKU Amstetten was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 32–23–45
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU Amstetten
  4. 34′Much as we predicted: SKU Amstetten was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
  5. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' SKU Amstetten
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 0–0 SKU Amstetten
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 0–0 SKU Amstetten
  8. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' SKU Amstetten win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  9. 53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: D. Au Yeong · Off: D. Kelly
  10. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was SKU Amstetten win 34%)
  11. 55′We expected about 3.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 29–34–37
  12. 57′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 26–41–33
  13. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: A. Fetahu · Off: L. Sealey
  14. 65′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 23–48–29
  15. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SKU Amstetten · On: A. Haider · Off: S. Wimmer
  16. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SKU Amstetten · On: P. Lipczinski · Off: V. Augustus
  17. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' SKU Amstetten win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  18. 72′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 19–57–24
  19. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' SKU Amstetten
  20. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
  21. 77′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 16–65–19
  22. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: Y. Shima · Off: Rodrigo Souza
  23. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' SKU Amstetten win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  24. 82′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 11–76–13
  25. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: Matheus Cecchini · Off: D. Araki
  26. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SKU Amstetten · On: T. Mayer · Off: J. Steiger
  27. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' SKU Amstetten · On: N. Zellhofer · Off: D. Peham
  28. 86′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 7–84–9
  29. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: L. Dantas · Off: Joao Cesco
  30. 91′A red card for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 4–91–5
  31. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' SKU Amstetten win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  32. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 90+1' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
  33. 92′We said SKU Amstetten at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
  34. FTFULL TIME Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 0–0 SKU Amstetten
  35. FTSchwarz-Weiß Bregenz 0–0 SKU Amstetten · SKU Amstetten win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SKU Amstetten are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 32%, draw 22%, SKU Amstetten 45%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU AmstettenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win32%
Draw22%
SKU Amstetten win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueImmoAgentur Stadion

RefereeM. Greinecker

Line-ups

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

SKU Amstetten

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

SKU Amstetten

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 9 Oct · 2. Liga

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7SKU Amstetten8+313
11Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz8−210

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Aizawa

4 D. Kelly

3 William Rodrigues

43 Joao Cesco

16 Rodrigo Souza

24 A. Zaizen

8 L. Nussbaumer

20 Gabryel

14 G. Omotehara

18 D. Araki

23 L. Sealey

Coach · Martin Brenner

Substitutes

1 · Joao Paulo

6 · Y. Shima

10 · A. Fetahu

21 · D. Maksimovic

22 · D. Au Yeong

47 · L. Dantas

80 · Matheus Cecchini

SKU Amstetten

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Estevao

12 L. Deinhofer

15 P. Offenthaler

4 L. Wimhofer

6 F. Hajdini

2 F. Kochl

18 S. Wimmer

20 Y. Votter

45 V. Augustus

9 D. Peham

10 J. Steiger

Coach · Andreas Gahleitner

Substitutes

23 · T. Turner

19 · B. Pursall

7 · P. Lipczinski

24 · L. Lanthaler

30 · A. Haider

16 · T. Mayer

36 · N. Zellhofer

Our number · sku amstetten winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market44%
Us45%
Market44%

We make SKU Amstetten a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz v SKU Amstetten1.53 – 1.85
Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 AugW2 D1 L3 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 10 v 1311 v 7
The market · SKU Amstetten win44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0017 OCT 14:03
Our probability · SKU Amstetten win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win32%31%+1
Draw22%25%−3
SKU Amstetten win45%44%+1
Over 2.5 goals65%59%+6
Both teams to score65%62%+3
Over 1.5 goals85%79%+6
Over 3.5 goals43%39%+4
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz or draw55%56%−1
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz clean sheet16%––
SKU Amstetten clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%
0123450 3.6 6.4 5.8 3.6 1 5.3 9.6 8.7 5.4 2.5 2 4.0 7.3 6.6 4.1 3 2.1 3.7 3.4 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz down, SKU Amstetten across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.83
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsSKU 2–3 SCH · SCH 0–2 SKU · SCH 2–1 SKU · SKU 1–2 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 15 Aug

SCHWARZ-WEISS BREGENZ

DWLWLL0–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

SKU AMSTETTEN

DDLWWD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–2 · 4–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1First Vienna9+1022
2FC BW Linz8+1619
3Austria Vienna (Am)9+316
4Austria Salzburg9+416
5Wacker Innsbruck9+214
6Floridsdorfer AC8+213
7SKU Amstetten8+313
8FC Liefering8+113
9Admira Wacker8012
10SKN ST. Polten9−210
11Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz8−210
12Voitsberg9−49
13Sturm Graz II8−58
14WSPG Wels9−88
15Rapid Wien II9−117
16SV Kapfenberg8−93

The competition's standings before kick-off.