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First Vienna v SKN ST. Polten

First Vienna

3–1Full time

SKN ST. Polten

2. Liga · FRI 9 OCT · Hohe Warte Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:00

First Vienna 3–1 SKN ST. Polten FIRST VIENNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said First Vienna win~~38%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.575

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.433

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said First Vienna win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: First Vienna 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
1′KICK-OFF First Vienna v SKN ST. Polten
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' First Vienna 0–0 SKN ST. Polten
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' First Vienna 1–0 SKN ST. Polten
6′A goal for First Vienna on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–20–13
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' First Vienna win: 38% at kick-off, 67% now
11′We said First Vienna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
13′🟨 YELLOW · 14' First Vienna
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' First Vienna win: 38% at kick-off, 68% now
28′We said First Vienna at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–21–9
33′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 70–21–9
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' First Vienna
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' First Vienna 1–0 SKN ST. Polten
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' First Vienna 1–1 SKN ST. Polten · Y. Soukouna
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' First Vienna
45′SECOND HALF First Vienna 1–1 SKN ST. Polten
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' S. Skogen · SKN ST. Polten
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' First Vienna · On: B. Zimmermann · Off: C. Monschein
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' First Vienna · On: T. Anselm · Off: L. Edelhofer
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' SKN ST. Polten · On: T. Altersberger · Off: W. Amoah
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' First Vienna 2–1 SKN ST. Polten · P. Breit
62′⚽ GOAL · 64' First Vienna 2–1 SKN ST. Polten
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' First Vienna 2–1 SKN ST. Polten
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' First Vienna 2–1 SKN ST. Polten · B. Zimmermann
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' First Vienna 3–1 SKN ST. Polten · B. Zimmermann
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' SKN ST. Polten · On: L. Hartwig · Off: C. Messerer
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' SKN ST. Polten
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' SKN ST. Polten · On: P. Rupp · Off: L. Gabbichler
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' First Vienna · On: I. Jung · Off: Y. Soukouna
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' First Vienna
FTFULL TIME First Vienna 3–1 SKN ST. Polten
FTFirst Vienna 3–1 SKN ST. Polten · First Vienna win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

First Vienna win38%

Draw28%

SKN ST. Polten win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Hohe Warte Stadium

Referee · D. Divkovic

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

First Vienna

5-4-1

1 B. Unger

24 R. Marte

23 M. Gantschnig

4 P. Breit

25 J. Bauer

17 B. Rosenberger

7 C. Monschein

19 F. Prohart

66 D. Ungar

77 L. Edelhofer

11 Y. Soukouna

Coach · Patrick Enengl

Substitutes

33 · K. Kretschmer

8 · B. Luxbacher

9 · I. Jung

10 · T. Anselm

18 · B. Zimmermann

22 · T. Gruber

32 · F. Luckeneder

SKN ST. Polten

3-5-2

1 C. Knett

4 N. Szerencsi

15 S. Skogen

6 A. Borkovic

7 W. Amoah

8 C. Messerer

34 L. Krasniqi

10 M. Stendera

22 E. H. Mane

45 D. Gabriel Jesus

11 L. Gabbichler

Coach · Cem Sekerlioglu

Substitutes

32 · M. Kurz

5 · L. Buchegger

18 · T. Altersberger

19 · P. Rupp

27 · M. Kolodziejczyk

20 · J. Halmich

28 · L. Hartwig

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

First Vienna

5-4-1

1 B. Unger

24 R. Marte

23 M. Gantschnig

4 P. Breit

25 J. Bauer

17 B. Rosenberger

7 C. Monschein

19 F. Prohart

66 D. Ungar

77 L. Edelhofer

11 Y. Soukouna

Coach · Patrick Enengl

Substitutes

33 · K. Kretschmer

8 · B. Luxbacher

9 · I. Jung

10 · T. Anselm

18 · B. Zimmermann

22 · T. Gruber

32 · F. Luckeneder

SKN ST. Polten

3-5-2

1 C. Knett

4 N. Szerencsi

15 S. Skogen

6 A. Borkovic

7 W. Amoah

8 C. Messerer

34 L. Krasniqi

10 M. Stendera

22 E. H. Mane

45 D. Gabriel Jesus

11 L. Gabbichler

Coach · Cem Sekerlioglu

Substitutes

32 · M. Kurz

5 · L. Buchegger

18 · T. Altersberger

19 · P. Rupp

27 · M. Kolodziejczyk

20 · J. Halmich

28 · L. Hartwig

Our number · first vienna winPublished 9 Oct 19:34

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make First Vienna a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · first vienna win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
First Vienna win	38%	46%	−8
Draw	28%	26%	+2
SKN ST. Polten win	34%	27%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	54%	−14
Both teams to score	47%	58%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	67%	77%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	21%	33%	−13
First Vienna or draw	66%	73%	−6
First Vienna clean sheet	33%	–	–
SKN ST. Polten clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 10.1 10.9 6.1 2.3 1 11.8 13.1 7.2 2.7 2 7.2 7.8 4.4 3 2.9 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+First Vienna down, SKN ST. Polten across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,238 2. Liga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.25 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

First Vienna at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). SKN ST. Polten away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for First Vienna, 1.11 for SKN ST. Polten. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.25

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~8 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FIR 2–1 SKN · SKN 2–1 FIR · SKN 3–3 FIR · FIR 2–1 SKN

Form · last six in 2. Liga

FIRST VIENNA

LDWWWW1–4 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

SKN ST. POLTEN

LLLWWW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	7	+16	18
2	First Vienna	7	+7	16
3	Floridsdorfer AC	7	+3	13
4	SKU Amstetten	7	+3	12
5	Austria Vienna (Am)	7	+2	12
6	Wacker Innsbruck	7	+2	11
7	Austria Salzburg	7	+2	10
8	FC Liefering	7	−1	10
9	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	7	−1	10
10	SKN ST. Polten	7	0	9
11	Admira Wacker	7	−1	9
12	Voitsberg	7	−2	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	−3	8
14	Rapid Wien II	7	−10	6
15	WSPG Wels	7	−9	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	7	−8	3