First Vienna v Floridsdorfer AC prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

First Vienna 2–0 Floridsdorfer AC FIRST VIENNA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said First Vienna win~~39%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.559

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.296

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said First Vienna win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: First Vienna was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–30–32
1′KICK-OFF First Vienna v Floridsdorfer AC
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' First Vienna
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' First Vienna
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' First Vienna
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was First Vienna win 35%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' First Vienna
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' First Vienna
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' First Vienna
45′HALF-TIME First Vienna 0–0 Floridsdorfer AC
45′SECOND HALF First Vienna 0–0 Floridsdorfer AC
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' First Vienna · On: B. Luxbacher · Off: D. Ungar
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' First Vienna · On: F. Luckeneder · Off: T. Gruber
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' First Vienna win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Floridsdorfer AC
52′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
52′First Vienna find the net on 52′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' First Vienna 1–0 Floridsdorfer AC
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' First Vienna win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' First Vienna win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 49%)
53′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 77–19–4
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' First Vienna win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
61′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' First Vienna · On: M. Fillafer · Off: B. Zimmermann
64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' First Vienna · On: L. Edelhofer · Off: C. Monschein
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Floridsdorfer AC · On: T. Glavan · Off: N. Bitsche
72′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Floridsdorfer AC
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' First Vienna win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Floridsdorfer AC · On: J. Richards · Off: M. Vucenovic
79′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
86′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′A goal for First Vienna on 87′. 1–0 · 96–4–0
88′We published First Vienna at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' First Vienna 2–0 Floridsdorfer AC
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' First Vienna win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Floridsdorfer AC · On: N. Schneider · Off: T. Osmani
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' First Vienna
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' First Vienna · On: F. Nagele · Off: F. Prohart
94′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Floridsdorfer AC · On: T. Lerchbacher · Off: M. Becirovic
FTFULL TIME First Vienna 2–0 Floridsdorfer AC
FTFirst Vienna 2–0 Floridsdorfer AC · First Vienna win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

First Vienna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: First Vienna 39%, draw 29%, Floridsdorfer AC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on First Vienna v Floridsdorfer ACBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

First Vienna win39%

Draw29%

Floridsdorfer AC win32%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueHohe Warte Stadium

RefereeJ. Schnur

Line-ups

First Vienna

3-4-3

Floridsdorfer AC

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

First Vienna

Floridsdorfer AC

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

First Vienna

3-4-3

1 Bernhard Unger

23 Marco Gantschnig

4 Philipp Breit

22 Tobias Gruber

25 Jurgen Bauer

19 Florian Prohart

66 David Ungar

17 Benjamin Rosenberger

18 Bernhard Zimmermann

11 Youssouf Soukouna

7 Christoph Monschein

Coach · –

Substitutes

32 · Felix Luckeneder

8 · Bernhard Luxbacher

77 · Luca Edelhofer

26 · Maximilian Fillafer

20 · Felix Nagele

33 · Kilian Kretschmer

9 · In-gyom Jung

Floridsdorfer AC

3-5-2

1 Paul Scharner

24 Dominik Kirnbauer

19 Mirnes Bećirović

5 Simon Filipovic

17 Moritz Neumann

8 Tristan Osmani

6 Noah Bitsche

18 Marcus Maier

28 Thomas Geris

10 Lan Piskule

12 Mario Vucenovic

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · Tomislav Glavan

34 · Joel Richards

20 · Niklas Schneider

11 · Tobias Lerchbacher

57 · Alexander Turkin

4 · Josef Taieb

22 · Daniel Brandl

Our number · first vienna winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

39% The market56%

Us39%

~~Market~~56%

We make First Vienna a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · First Vienna v Floridsdorfer AC~~1.17 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 13~~2 v 8

~~The market · First Vienna win~~56% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · First Vienna win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
First Vienna win	39%	56%	−17
Draw	29%	24%	+5
Floridsdorfer AC win	32%	21%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	37%	50%	−13
Both teams to score	44%	51%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	64%	73%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	18%	30%	−12
First Vienna or draw	68%	79%	−11
First Vienna clean sheet	36%	–	–
Floridsdorfer AC clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 11.6 11.4 5.9 2.0 1 12.9 13.3 6.7 2.3 2 7.6 7.7 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+First Vienna down, Floridsdorfer AC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 2. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.12 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

First Vienna at home: 2.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Floridsdorfer AC away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for First Vienna, 1.02 for Floridsdorfer AC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~FLO 0–1 FIR · FIR 0–2 FLO · FLO 2–1 FIR · FIR 0–2 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

FIRST VIENNA

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 2–1

FLORIDSDORFER AC

WWLWLL2–0 · 2–0 · 0–4 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	9	+19	22
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	+4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	−4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	−8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6