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FC Liefering v Sturm Graz II

FC Liefering

3–1Full time

Sturm Graz II

2. Liga · SAT 10 OCT · Red Bull Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

FC Liefering 3–1 Sturm Graz II FC LIEFERING WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Liefering win~~57%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.284

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Liefering win at 57%.
1′A goal for FC Liefering on 1′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 57–20–23
1′KICK-OFF FC Liefering v Sturm Graz II
2′⚽ GOAL · 1' FC Liefering 1–0 Sturm Graz II
19′We published FC Liefering at 57%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–9
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' FC Liefering win: 57% at kick-off, 77% now
39′40′ and it is 2–0: L. Traore on the scoresheet for FC Liefering. 2–0 · 93–5–2
39′⚽ GOAL · 40' FC Liefering 2–0 Sturm Graz II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' FC Liefering win: 57% at kick-off, 93% now
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FC Liefering 2–1 Sturm Graz II
45′HALF-TIME FC Liefering 2–1 Sturm Graz II
48′SECOND HALF FC Liefering 2–1 Sturm Graz II
49′SECOND HALF FC Liefering 2–1 Sturm Graz II
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' FC Liefering
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Liefering · On: Yuri Leles · Off: F. Matijasevic
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' FC Liefering · On: J. Moser · Off: I. Ivanschitz
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sturm Graz II · On: J. Petritsch · Off: T. Gurmann Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' FC Liefering 3–1 Sturm Graz II
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Liefering · On: R. Kosakiewic · Off: O. Adejenughure
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' FC Liefering · On: I. Onwuzulike · Off: J. Pokorny
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sturm Graz II · On: J. Wolf · Off: J. Locker Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sturm Graz II · On: J. Ploner · Off: M. Grgic
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' FC Liefering · On: D. Grudzinskas · Off: M. Matjasec
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' FC Liefering
FTFULL TIME FC Liefering 3–1 Sturm Graz II
FTFC Liefering 3–1 Sturm Graz II · FC Liefering win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Liefering win57%

Draw20%

Sturm Graz II win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Red Bull Arena

Referee · S. Bosnjak

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Liefering

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Hupfauf

47 J. Hussauf

45 N. Masching

13 J. Pokorny

28 L. Traore

25 Riquelme

22 M. Matjasec

16 I. Ivanschitz

20 F. Aleksic

11 O. Adejenughure

40 F. Matijasevic

Coach · Danny Galm

Substitutes

1 · B. Ozegovic

24 · J. Zangerl

44 · I. Onwuzulike

6 · D. Grudzinskas

17 · R. Kosakiewic

19 · J. Moser

37 · Yuri Leles

Sturm Graz II

Formation not confirmed

41 E. Lorenz

19 K. Nnamdi

31 B. Pernot

15 E. Roche

66 L. Morgenstern

12 J. Peinhart

17 J. Locker

5 B. Maierhofer

21 M. Grgic

11 T. Gurmann

9 N. Lang

Coach · Christoph Wurm

Substitutes

1 · N. Donat

2 · S. Bakhty

13 · J. Wolf

20 · J. Gratzei

22 · J. Petritsch

47 · R. Osayantin

60 · J. Ploner

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Liefering

Formation not confirmed

30 T. Hupfauf

47 J. Hussauf

45 N. Masching

13 J. Pokorny

28 L. Traore

25 Riquelme

22 M. Matjasec

16 I. Ivanschitz

20 F. Aleksic

11 O. Adejenughure

40 F. Matijasevic

Coach · Danny Galm

Substitutes

1 · B. Ozegovic

24 · J. Zangerl

44 · I. Onwuzulike

6 · D. Grudzinskas

17 · R. Kosakiewic

19 · J. Moser

37 · Yuri Leles

Sturm Graz II

Formation not confirmed

41 E. Lorenz

19 K. Nnamdi

31 B. Pernot

15 E. Roche

66 L. Morgenstern

12 J. Peinhart

17 J. Locker

5 B. Maierhofer

21 M. Grgic

11 T. Gurmann

9 N. Lang

Coach · Christoph Wurm

Substitutes

1 · N. Donat

2 · S. Bakhty

13 · J. Wolf

20 · J. Gratzei

22 · J. Petritsch

47 · R. Osayantin

60 · J. Ploner

Our number · fc liefering winPublished 10 Oct 14:40

57% The market43%

Us57%

~~Market~~43%

We make FC Liefering a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc liefering win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Liefering win	57%	43%	+13
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Sturm Graz II win	23%	34%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	70%	72%	−2
Both teams to score	66%	72%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	49%	53%	−4
FC Liefering or draw	77%	66%	+10
FC Liefering clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sturm Graz II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 2.9 3.8 2.6 1 6.1 8.3 5.7 2.6 2 6.7 9.1 6.2 2.9 3 5.0 6.7 4.6 2.1 4 2.8 3.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Liefering down, Sturm Graz II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,241 2. Liga matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.62 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Liefering at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sturm Graz II away: 1.00 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for FC Liefering, 1.38 for Sturm Graz II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.62

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~STU 0–1 FCL · FCL 2–2 STU · STU 1–0 FCL · FCL 2–2 STU

Form · last six in 2. Liga

FC LIEFERING

LDWWLL2–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–4

STURM GRAZ II

WLLWDD4–2 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 5–2 · 3–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	8	+16	19
2	First Vienna	8	+9	19
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	8	+3	15
4	SKU Amstetten	8	+3	13
5	Floridsdorfer AC	7	+3	13
6	Wacker Innsbruck	7	+2	11
7	Austria Salzburg	7	+2	10
8	FC Liefering	7	−1	10
9	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	7	−1	10
10	Admira Wacker	7	−1	9
11	Voitsberg	7	−2	9
12	SKN ST. Polten	8	−2	9
13	Sturm Graz II	7	−3	8
14	Rapid Wien II	7	−10	6
15	WSPG Wels	7	−9	4
16	SV Kapfenberg	8	−9	3