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FC Liefering v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

FC Liefering

2–2Full time

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

2. Liga · SAT 24 OCT · Red Bull Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

FC Liefering 2–2 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz FC LIEFERING WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Liefering win~~58%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.032

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Liefering win at 58%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Liefering 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–20–23
1′KICK-OFF FC Liefering v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
6′Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 35–22–43
6′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–1 · 35–22–43
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' FC Liefering 0–1 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 35% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Liefering win 57%)
9′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–22–44
24′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 27–25–48
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
36′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
44′A goal for FC Liefering on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–31–22
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' FC Liefering 1–1 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 47% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' FC Liefering win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win 53%)
45′HALF-TIME FC Liefering 1–1 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
46′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–32–22
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FC Liefering · On: R. Kosakiewic · Off: J. Moser
46′SECOND HALF FC Liefering 1–1 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
51′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–34–22
52′Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz score on 51′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 17–27–56
52′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–2 · 17–27–56
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' FC Liefering 1–2 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was FC Liefering win 44%)
57′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–27–59
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' FC Liefering
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Liefering · On: I. Onwuzulike · Off: N. Masching
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Liefering · On: Y. Sulbaran · Off: Yuri Leles
67′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–25–66
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: K. Saito · Off: A. Zaizen
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: D. Kelly · Off: L. Dantas
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC Liefering · On: F. Matijasevic · Off: J. Werner
76′We said FC Liefering at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: D. Maksimovic · Off: G. Omotehara
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · On: G. Davies · Off: Rodrigo Souza
81′FC Liefering find the net on 81′. 2–2. 2–2 · 18–71–10
81′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 18–71–10
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' FC Liefering 2–2 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Draw is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win 82%)
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' FC Liefering win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Liefering · On: R. Feldinger · Off: J. Zangerl
FTFULL TIME FC Liefering 2–2 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
FTFC Liefering 2–2 Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz · FC Liefering win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Liefering are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Liefering 58%, draw 20%, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz 22%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on FC Liefering v Schwarz-Weiß BregenzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Liefering win58%

Draw20%

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueRed Bull Arena

RefereeE. Ristoskov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Liefering

Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
12	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc liefering winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market36%

Us58%

~~Market~~36%

We make FC Liefering a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Liefering v Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz~~2.31 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~9 v 12

~~The market · FC Liefering win~~36% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Liefering win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Liefering win	58%	36%	+22
Draw	20%	25%	−5
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz win	22%	39%	−17
Over 2.5 goals	71%	64%	+7
Both teams to score	67%	67%	0
Over 1.5 goals	88%	83%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	50%	44%	+6
FC Liefering or draw	78%	61%	+17
FC Liefering clean sheet	25%	–	–
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 2.7 3.5 2.4 1 5.8 8.0 5.5 2.5 2 6.6 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 5.1 6.9 4.7 2.2 4 3.0 4.0 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Liefering down, Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,260 2. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Liefering at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz away: 0.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.31 goals for FC Liefering, 1.39 for Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCL 4–3 SCH · SCH 2–2 FCL · SCH 2–0 FCL · FCL 2–2 SCH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

FC LIEFERING

WWLLWL2–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 3–1 · 1–4

SCHWARZ-WEISS BREGENZ

WLWLLD3–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	10	+20	25
2	First Vienna	10	+12	25
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	10	+4	19
4	SKU Amstetten	10	+4	17
5	Austria Salzburg	10	+3	16
6	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	10	−2	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Voitsberg	10	0	12
11	SKN ST. Polten	10	−2	11
12	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
13	Sturm Graz II	10	−8	8
14	WSPG Wels	10	−12	8
15	SV Kapfenberg	10	−7	7
16	Rapid Wien II	10	−12	7