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Austria Vienna (Am) v Sturm Graz II

Austria Vienna (Am)

1–0Full time

Sturm Graz II

2. Liga · FRI 23 OCT · Generali Arena

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 20:01

Austria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II AUSTRIA VIENNA (AM) WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Austria Vienna (Am) win~~47%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.416

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Austria Vienna (Am) win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Austria Vienna (Am) 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–24–29
1′KICK-OFF Austria Vienna (Am) v Sturm Graz II
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Austria Vienna (Am)
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Sturm Graz II
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Sturm Graz II
27′Austria Vienna (Am) score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
27′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–18–10
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Austria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Austria Vienna (Am) win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Austria Vienna (Am)
30′26′: M. Brandt on the scoresheet for Austria Vienna (Am), making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–18–10
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–9
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Austria Vienna (Am)
45′HALF-TIME Austria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II
46′SECOND HALF Austria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II
48′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: M. Moswitzer · Off: J. Feddersen
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Austria Vienna (Am) win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Sturm Graz II
66′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sturm Graz II · On: J. Locker · Off: J. Petritsch
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Sturm Graz II · On: J. Wolf · Off: M. Grgic
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: M. Hausjell · Off: I. Menshykov
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austria Vienna (Am) · On: B. Jerabek · Off: R. Morth
75′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Austria Vienna (Am) win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
82′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sturm Graz II · On: R. Osayantin · Off: J. Peinhart
88′We said Austria Vienna (Am) at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Austria Vienna (Am) win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Austria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II
FTAustria Vienna (Am) 1–0 Sturm Graz II · Austria Vienna (Am) win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Austria Vienna (Am) are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austria Vienna (Am) 47%, draw 23%, Sturm Graz II 29%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Austria Vienna (Am) v Sturm Graz IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Austria Vienna (Am) win47%

Draw23%

Sturm Graz II win29%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGenerali Arena

RefereeC. Demir

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austria Vienna (Am)

Sturm Graz II

7Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 18 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · austria vienna (am) winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market37%

Us47%

~~Market~~37%

We make Austria Vienna (Am) a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Austria Vienna (Am) v Sturm Graz II~~1.76 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 8~~3 v 13

~~The market · Austria Vienna (Am) win~~37% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Austria Vienna (Am) win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austria Vienna (Am) win	47%	37%	+10
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Sturm Graz II win	29%	37%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	59%	60%	−1
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	40%	−3
Austria Vienna (Am) or draw	71%	63%	+8
Austria Vienna (Am) clean sheet	27%	–	–
Sturm Graz II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.8 6.0 4.1 1 8.0 10.7 7.0 3.1 2 7.0 9.2 6.1 2.7 3 4.2 5.4 3.6 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Vienna (Am) down, Sturm Graz II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 2. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austria Vienna (Am) at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sturm Graz II away: 1.00 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Austria Vienna (Am), 1.33 for Sturm Graz II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AUS 0–1 STU · STU 1–2 AUS · AUS 0–1 STU · STU 1–2 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

AUSTRIA VIENNA (AM)

LWLWWD1–2 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 4–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

STURM GRAZ II

LWDDLL1–3 · 5–2 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	9	+19	22
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	+4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	−4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	−8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6