Austria Salzburg v FC BW Linz prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:01

Austria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz FC BW LINZ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC BW Linz win~~54%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.345

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC BW Linz win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC BW Linz was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 24–23–54
1′KICK-OFF Austria Salzburg v FC BW Linz
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Austria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' FC BW Linz win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
29′A goal for FC BW Linz on 28′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–16–77
29′We published FC BW Linz at 54%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 7–16–77
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 7–16–77
45′HALF-TIME Austria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz
46′SECOND HALF Austria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz
54′We published FC BW Linz at 54%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Austria Salzburg · On: T. Crnkic · Off: L. Kronberger
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' FC BW Linz win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
71′We published FC BW Linz at 54%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC BW Linz · On: F. Ruschke · Off: J. Collmann
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' FC BW Linz · On: J. Mayer · Off: D. Madritsch
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Austria Salzburg · On: M. Mahmoud · Off: C. Gruber
80′We published FC BW Linz at 54%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' FC BW Linz win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We published FC BW Linz at 54%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Austria Salzburg · On: N. Lukasser Weitlaner · Off: S. Spitali
87′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC BW Linz · On: F. Ristanic · Off: D. Kreiker
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC BW Linz · On: N. Grimbs · Off: A. Tsarenko
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC BW Linz · On: D. Riegler · Off: D. Frieser
FTFULL TIME Austria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz
FTAustria Salzburg 0–1 FC BW Linz · FC BW Linz win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC BW Linz are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austria Salzburg 24%, draw 23%, FC BW Linz 54%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Austria Salzburg v FC BW LinzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Austria Salzburg win24%

Draw23%

FC BW Linz win54%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMax-Aicher-Stadion

RefereeA. Sadikovski

Line-ups

Austria Salzburg

3-4-3

FC BW Linz

3-4-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austria Salzburg

FC BW Linz

7Days since last match6

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Austria Salzburg

3-4-3

1 Simon Nesler-Täubl

14 Christoph Gruber

55 Luca Meisl

60 Simon Pirkl

2 Tobias Rohrmoser

10 Florian Rieder

8 Marco Rottensteiner

3 San-Luca Spitali

71 Christian Gebauer

15 Luca Kronberger

11 Christian Huetz

Coach · –

Substitutes

70 · Tamar Crnkic

7 · Mohammad Mahmoud

9 · Nico Lukasser-Weitlaner

13 · Philipp Bauer

22 · Tobias Pfeffer

5 · Lukas Schweighofer

6 · Thomas Schandl

FC BW Linz

3-4-1-2

26 Christopher Giuliani

17 Alem Pašić

15 Manuel Maranda

2 Fabio Strauss

28 Dominik Frieser

18 Diego Madritsch

47 Dario Kreiker

8 Karim Conte

30 Anton Tsarenko

33 Jacob Collmann

11 Romeo Vučić

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · Jonas Mayer

29 · Felix Ruschke

10 · Filip Ristanić

22 · David Riegler

5 · Nico Grimbs

1 · Valentin Oelz

27 · Thomas Schiestl

Our number · fc bw linz winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

54% The market52%

Us54%

~~Market~~52%

We make FC BW Linz a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Austria Salzburg v FC BW Linz~~1.14 – 1.86

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 22~~4 v 1

~~The market · FC BW Linz win~~52% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC BW Linz win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austria Salzburg win	24%	24%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
FC BW Linz win	54%	52%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Austria Salzburg or draw	46%	48%	−2
Austria Salzburg clean sheet	16%	–	–
FC BW Linz clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 9.2 8.5 5.3 2.6 1 5.7 10.5 9.4 5.8 2.8 2 3.4 6.0 5.4 3.3 3 2.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austria Salzburg down, FC BW Linz across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,254 2. Liga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.1% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Austria Salzburg at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC BW Linz away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Austria Salzburg, 1.86 for FC BW Linz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

AUSTRIA SALZBURG

WLDLWW3–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0

FC BW LINZ

WLWWDW5–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	9	+19	22
2	First Vienna	9	+10	22
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	9	+3	16
4	Austria Salzburg	9	+4	16
5	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
6	SKU Amstetten	9	+3	14
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	9	0	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
11	SKN ST. Polten	9	−2	10
12	Voitsberg	9	−4	9
13	Sturm Graz II	9	−7	8
14	WSPG Wels	9	−8	8
15	Rapid Wien II	9	−11	7
16	SV Kapfenberg	9	−7	6