Admira Wacker v Wacker Innsbruck prediction · 2. Liga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Admira Wacker 1–0 Wacker Innsbruck ADMIRA WACKER WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Admira Wacker win~~47%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.417

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.500

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Admira Wacker win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Admira Wacker was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–26
1′KICK-OFF Admira Wacker v Wacker Innsbruck
18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Admira Wacker
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Wacker Innsbruck
32′Admira Wacker score on 32′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–18–7
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Admira Wacker 1–0 Wacker Innsbruck
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Admira Wacker win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
33′We published Admira Wacker at 47%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–7
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–7
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Admira Wacker win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wacker Innsbruck · On: G. Biancheri · Off: R. Galle
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Wacker Innsbruck · On: B. Owusu · Off: L. Gstrein
56′We published Admira Wacker at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Admira Wacker · On: M. Meisl · Off: L. de Wit
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Wacker Innsbruck
70′We published Admira Wacker at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Wacker Innsbruck · On: M. Kochl · Off: R. Littig
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Admira Wacker win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
79′We published Admira Wacker at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Admira Wacker · On: M. Bubanj · Off: N. Ajanovic
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Admira Wacker · On: M. Wagner · Off: B. Nyarko
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Admira Wacker · On: X. Woudstra · Off: B. Glitia
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wacker Innsbruck · On: A. Rodriguez · Off: O. Yilmaz
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Wacker Innsbruck · On: A. Wibowo · Off: D. Francis
86′We published Admira Wacker at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Admira Wacker win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Admira Wacker 1–0 Wacker Innsbruck
FTAdmira Wacker 1–0 Wacker Innsbruck · Admira Wacker win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Admira Wacker are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Admira Wacker 47%, draw 26%, Wacker Innsbruck 27%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Admira Wacker v Wacker InnsbruckBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Admira Wacker win47%

Draw26%

Wacker Innsbruck win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

RefereeI. Simsek

Line-ups

Admira Wacker

4-2-3-1

Wacker Innsbruck

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Admira Wacker

Wacker Innsbruck

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 2. Liga

Last match: 16 Oct · 2. Liga

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Admira Wacker

4-2-3-1

1 Clemens Steinbauer

23 Josef Weberbauer

3 Sergej Savic

21 Lars de Wit

22 Felix Holzhacker

12 Benjamin Glitia

8 Turgay Gemicibaşı

14 Benjamin Nyarko

10 Alexander Schmidt

7 Nadir Ajanović

9 Justin Forst

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · Sandali Conde

36 · Aristot Tambwe-Kasengele

5 · Matteo Meisl

17 · Marco Wagner

18 · Xavi Woudstra

77 · Mateja Bubanj

30 · Riad Kadrija

Wacker Innsbruck

4-2-3-1

33 Juri Kirchmayr

16 Alexander Joppich

5 Phil Kunze

19 Florian Kopp

21 Robin Littig

4 Daniel Francis

11 Raphael Gallé

18 Adrian Lechl

8 Matthew Evans

22 Luis Gstrein

9 Okan Yılmaz

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · Lukas Tauber

6 · Manuel Petutschnig

2 · Max Köchl

29 · Anderson Rodriguez

20 · Gabriele Biancheri

24 · Bright Owusu

7 · Adrian Wibowo

Our number · admira wacker winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market42%

Us47%

~~Market~~42%

We make Admira Wacker a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Admira Wacker v Wacker Innsbruck~~1.48 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 14~~6 v 7

~~The market · Admira Wacker win~~42% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Admira Wacker win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Admira Wacker win	47%	42%	+5
Draw	26%	26%	0
Wacker Innsbruck win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	71%	77%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	34%	−9
Admira Wacker or draw	73%	68%	+5
Admira Wacker clean sheet	36%	–	–
Wacker Innsbruck clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 8.5 8.4 4.4 1 12.0 12.2 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 8.9 4.6 3 4.4 4.4 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Admira Wacker down, Wacker Innsbruck across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,260 2. Liga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 2. Liga matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.0% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Admira Wacker at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Wacker Innsbruck away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Admira Wacker, 1.03 for Wacker Innsbruck. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 2. Liga this season · since 21 Aug

ADMIRA WACKER

LWWLWW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 2–0

WACKER INNSBRUCK

WLDDWL1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC BW Linz	10	+20	25
2	First Vienna	10	+12	25
3	Austria Vienna (Am)	10	+4	19
4	SKU Amstetten	10	+4	17
5	Austria Salzburg	10	+3	16
6	Admira Wacker	9	+2	15
7	Wacker Innsbruck	9	+2	14
8	Floridsdorfer AC	10	−2	13
9	FC Liefering	9	−2	13
10	Voitsberg	10	0	12
11	SKN ST. Polten	10	−2	11
12	Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz	9	−2	11
13	Sturm Graz II	10	−8	8
14	WSPG Wels	10	−12	8
15	SV Kapfenberg	10	−7	7
16	Rapid Wien II	10	−12	7