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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Australian Championship › Sydney Olympic v Bayswater City

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Sydney Olympic v Bayswater City

Sydney Olympic
04:00Upcoming
Bayswater City

Australian Championship · SUN 25 OCT · Sydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sydney OlympicDrawBayswater City
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00
Before kick-off · Match result · Bayswater City 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bayswater City are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sydney Olympic 25%, draw 21%, Bayswater City 54%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Sydney Olympic v Bayswater CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sydney Olympic win25%
Draw21%
Bayswater City win54%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 04:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueSydney Olympic Park Athletic Centre

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sydney Olympic

Bayswater City

9Days since last match8

Last match: 16 Oct · Australian Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · Australian Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Australian Championship · group 3

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Bayswater City1+23
3Sydney Olympic1−20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bayswater city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 04:24 · locked at kick-off
54% The market32%
Us54%
Market32%

We make Bayswater City a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sydney Olympic v Bayswater City1.46 – 2.21
Form · Australian Championship this season · since 16 OctW0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0
Table places · points 0 v 33 v 2
The market · Bayswater City win32% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%40%50%60% 19 OCT 01:3724 OCT 23:50
Our probability · Bayswater City win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sydney Olympic win25%45%−20
Draw21%24%−3
Bayswater City win54%32%+22
Over 2.5 goals71%64%+7
Both teams to score69%65%+4
Over 1.5 goals88%83%+5
Over 3.5 goals50%43%+7
Sydney Olympic or draw46%68%−22
Sydney Olympic clean sheet11%––
Bayswater City clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%
0123450 2.8 5.3 6.2 4.6 2.5 1 3.4 8.5 9.1 6.7 3.7 2 2.7 6.0 6.6 4.9 2.7 3 2.9 3.2 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sydney Olympic down, Bayswater City across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 16 Oct

SYDNEY OLYMPIC

L2–4

BAYSWATER CITY

W3–1

The table

2026 · Australian Championship · group 3
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Oakleigh Cannons1+23
2Bayswater City1+23
3Sydney Olympic1−20
4Marconi Stallions1−20

The competition's standings before kick-off.