Sutherland Sharks v Sydney United prediction · Australian Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sutherland SharksDrawSydney United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 04:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sydney United 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sydney United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutherland Sharks 27%, draw 27%, Sydney United 47%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Sutherland Sharks v Sydney UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Sutherland Sharks win27%

Draw27%

Sydney United win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 04:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 3

VenueSeymour Shaw Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutherland Sharks

Sydney United

7Days since last match8

Last match: 24 Oct · Australian Championship

Last match: 23 Oct · Australian Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Sutherland Sharks	2	+1	3
3	Sydney United	2	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sydney united winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Sydney United a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sutherland Sharks v Sydney United~~0.97 – 1.39

~~Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sutherland Sharks win	27%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Sydney United win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Sutherland Sharks or draw	53%	–	–
Sutherland Sharks clean sheet	25%	–	–
Sydney United clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.4 13.4 9.1 4.3 1 9.5 12.2 8.6 4.0 2 4.5 6.1 4.2 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sutherland Sharks down, Sydney United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,219 New South Wales NPL matches up to 13 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: New South Wales NPL matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 247 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sutherland Sharks at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sydney United away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Sutherland Sharks, 1.39 for Sydney United. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SYD 0–1 SUT · SUT 1–2 SYD · SUT 1–2 SYD · SYD 2–2 SUT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 Oct

SUTHERLAND SHARKS

LW0–1 · 2–0

SYDNEY UNITED

DD1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Australian Championship · group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	South Melbourne	2	+2	5
2	Sutherland Sharks	2	+1	3
3	Sydney United	2	0	3
4	Canberra FC	2	−3	1

The competition's standings before kick-off.

Sutherland Sharks v Sydney United

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Sutherland Sharks

Sydney United

The game in numbers

League table

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 Oct

The table