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Sutherland Sharks v South Melbourne

Sutherland Sharks
0–1Full time
South Melbourne

Australian Championship · SAT 17 OCT · Seymour Shaw Park

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 07:31
Sutherland Sharks 0–1 South Melbourne SOUTH MELBOURNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said South Melbourne win55%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.311
The market’s Brier score0.396

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said South Melbourne win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: South Melbourne was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 21–25–54
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sutherland Sharks v South Melbourne
  4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' South Melbourne win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
  5. 42′We said South Melbourne at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 20–37–43
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Sutherland Sharks 0–0 South Melbourne
  7. 46′South Melbourne find the net on 46′. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–15–80
  8. 46′SECOND HALF Sutherland Sharks 0–0 South Melbourne
  9. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Sutherland Sharks 0–1 South Melbourne
  10. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' South Melbourne win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
  11. 47′We published South Melbourne at 55%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 4–15–81
  12. 66′We published South Melbourne at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
  13. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' South Melbourne win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  14. 77′We published South Melbourne at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  15. 85′We published South Melbourne at 55%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  16. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' South Melbourne win: 55% at kick-off, 95% now
  17. FTFULL TIME Sutherland Sharks 0–1 South Melbourne
  18. FTSutherland Sharks 0–1 South Melbourne · South Melbourne win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

South Melbourne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sutherland Sharks 21%, draw 24%, South Melbourne 55%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sutherland Sharks v South MelbourneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sutherland Sharks win21%
Draw24%
South Melbourne win55%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 05:00

RoundGroup stage · matchday 1

VenueSeymour Shaw Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sutherland Sharks

South Melbourne

45Days since last match7

Last match: 2 Sept · New South Wales NPL

Last match: 10 Oct · Australia Cup

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sutherland Sharks000
3South Melbourne000

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · south melbourne winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
55% The market49%
Us55%
Market49%

We make South Melbourne a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sutherland Sharks v South Melbourne0.98 – 1.73
Table places · points 0 v 01 v 3
The market · South Melbourne win49% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 03:15
Our probability · South Melbourne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sutherland Sharks win21%25%−4
Draw24%26%−2
South Melbourne win55%49%+6
Over 2.5 goals51%52%−1
Both teams to score52%55%−3
Over 1.5 goals76%76%0
Over 3.5 goals29%31%−2
Sutherland Sharks or draw45%51%−6
Sutherland Sharks clean sheet18%––
South Melbourne clean sheet37%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 7.0 11.1 9.9 5.7 2.5 1 6.2 11.7 9.8 5.6 2.4 2 3.2 5.5 4.8 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sutherland Sharks down, South Melbourne across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season

SUTHERLAND SHARKS

No matches in our record yet.

SOUTH MELBOURNE

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026 · group 1
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sutherland Sharks000
2Sydney United000
3South Melbourne000
4Canberra FC000

The competition's standings before kick-off.