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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Australian Championship › South Melbourne v Sydney United

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South Melbourne v Sydney United

South Melbourne
1–1After penalties
Sydney United

Australian Championship · FRI 23 OCT · Lakeside Stadium

After 90 minutesGraded 23 Oct 12:01
South Melbourne 1–1 Sydney United SOUTH MELBOURNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said South Melbourne win48%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.797
The market’s Brier score0.910

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. South Melbourne won 5–4 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said South Melbourne win at 48%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: South Melbourne was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–29–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF South Melbourne v Sydney United
  4. 39′Sydney United find the net on 39′. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–26–62
  5. 39′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–26–62
  6. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' South Melbourne 0–1 Sydney United
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 12% now
  9. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Sydney United win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was South Melbourne win 39%)
  10. 40′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 12–26–62
  11. 45′HALF-TIME South Melbourne 0–1 Sydney United
  12. 46′SECOND HALF South Melbourne 0–1 Sydney United
  13. 49′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
  14. 50′A goal for South Melbourne on 50′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–46–20
  15. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' South Melbourne 1–1 Sydney United
  16. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Sydney United win 66%)
  18. 51′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–20
  19. 60′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
  20. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 28% now
  21. 67′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
  22. 74′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
  23. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
  24. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' South Melbourne win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
  25. 91′We said South Melbourne at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  26. 99′PENALTY MISSED · 90+9' Sydney United
  27. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  28. FTFULL TIME South Melbourne 1–1 Sydney United
  29. FTSouth Melbourne 1–1 Sydney United after 90 minutes, as graded · South Melbourne win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

South Melbourne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: South Melbourne 48%, draw 28%, Sydney United 24%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on South Melbourne v Sydney UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

South Melbourne win48%
Draw28%
Sydney United win24%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueLakeside Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

South Melbourne

Sydney United

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Australian Championship

Last match: 18 Oct · Australian Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1South Melbourne1+13
2Sydney United1+12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · south melbourne winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off
48% The market54%
Us48%
Market54%

We make South Melbourne a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · South Melbourne v Sydney United1.37 – 0.90
Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 OctW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
Table places · points 3 v 21 v 2
The market · South Melbourne win54% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 09:16
Our probability · South Melbourne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
South Melbourne win48%54%−6
Draw28%24%+4
Sydney United win24%22%+2
Over 2.5 goals40%54%−14
Both teams to score45%54%−9
Over 1.5 goals67%76%−9
Over 3.5 goals19%33%−14
South Melbourne or draw76%78%−2
South Melbourne clean sheet41%––
Sydney United clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%
0123450 10.7 8.8 4.1 1 13.8 13.1 5.7 2 9.7 8.7 3.9 3 4.5 4.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+South Melbourne down, Sydney United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 Oct

SOUTH MELBOURNE

W1–0

SYDNEY UNITED

D1–1

The table

2026 · group 1
#TEAMPGDPTS
1South Melbourne1+13
2Sydney United1+12
3Canberra FC1−11
4Sutherland Sharks1−10

The competition's standings before kick-off.