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Preston Lions v Wollongong Wolves
Preston LionsWollongong WolvesAustralian Championship · THU 15 OCT · Genis Steel Stadium
Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. It was decided on penalties.
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Preston Lions win at 72%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Preston Lions v Wollongong Wolves
- 2′Much as we predicted: Preston Lions was 72% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–18–9
- 19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Preston Lions
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 62% now
- 36′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 60%. 0–0 · 60–29–11
- 38′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–30–11
- 45′HALF-TIME Preston Lions 0–0 Wollongong Wolves
- 46′SECOND HALF Preston Lions 0–0 Wollongong Wolves
- 47′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–11
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 52% now
- 54′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–41–10
- 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 48–41–10
- 60′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–10
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 42% now
- 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Preston Lions win 42%)
- 67′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–54–9
- 71′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–59–8
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 32% now
- 74′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–64–7
- 78′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–71–6
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 22% now
- 81′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–77–5
- 84′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–84–4
- 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 12% now
- 88′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–89–2
- 94′We said Preston Lions at 72%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–0 · 2–97–1
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Preston Lions win: 72% at kick-off, 2% now
- FTFULL TIME Preston Lions 0–0 Wollongong Wolves
- FTPreston Lions 0–0 Wollongong Wolves after 90 minutes, as graded · Preston Lions win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassPreston Lions are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Preston Lions 72%, draw 18%, Wollongong Wolves 9%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 41%.
Pre-match prediction
Published 15 Oct 09:00 · locked at kick-off
Preston Lions win72%Wollongong Wolves win9%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 09:30
VenueGenis Steel Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Preston LionsMINWollongong WolvesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Preston Lions
Wollongong Wolves
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Preston Lions a 72% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Lions win | 72% | 63% | +9 |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | −2 |
| Wollongong Wolves win | 9% | 16% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 61% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 56% | −15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 81% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 41% | −11 |
| Preston Lions or draw | 91% | 84% | +7 |
| Preston Lions clean sheet | 54% | – | – |
| Wollongong Wolves clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
0 meetings since 2025No meetings between these two in Australian Championship since 2025. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.
Form · last six in Australian Championship
PRESTON LIONS
WOLLONGONG WOLVES