Lions v South Hobart

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Lions win at 91%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Lions 91% before kick-off, 91% now. 0–0 · 91–6–3
3. 1′KICK-OFF Lions v South Hobart
4. 28′South Hobart find the net on 28′. 0–1. 0–1 · 64–20–16
5. 28′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–1 · 64–20–16
6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Lions 0–1 South Hobart
7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 64% now
8. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 61% now
9. 34′A goal for Lions on 34′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 82–13–5
10. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Lions 1–1 South Hobart
11. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 82% now
12. 35′South Hobart score on 35′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 59–22–19
13. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Lions 1–2 South Hobart
14. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 59% now
15. 36′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 58%. 1–2 · 58–23–19
16. 41′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–2 · 54–25–21
17. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 51% now
18. 45′HALF-TIME Lions 1–2 South Hobart
19. 46′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–2 · 49–27–24
20. 46′SECOND HALF Lions 1–2 South Hobart
21. 50′The goal count is tracking the 4.8 we expected. 1–2 · 45–29–26
22. 51′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–2 · 44–29–27
23. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 41% now
24. 55′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–2 · 39–31–30
25. 59′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–2 · 34–32–34
26. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 31% now
27. 63′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–33–38
28. 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' South Hobart win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Lions win 29%)
29. 67′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–33–43
30. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 21% now
31. 71′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–33–48
32. 74′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–32–53
33. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 11% now
34. 78′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–29–62
35. 83′We said Lions at 91%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
36. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Lions win: 91% at kick-off, 1% now
37. FTFULL TIME Lions 1–2 South Hobart
38. FTLions 1–2 South Hobart · Lions win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.