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Model 1.2

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Lions v Preston Lions

Lions
2–1Full time
Preston Lions

Australian Championship · THU 22 OCT · Lions Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 12:00
Lions 2–1 Preston Lions PRESTON LIONS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Preston Lions win41%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.723
The market’s Brier score0.641

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Preston Lions win at 41%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Lions v Preston Lions
  3. 2′Much as we predicted: Preston Lions was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
  4. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Preston Lions win 36%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Lions 0–0 Preston Lions
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Lions 0–0 Preston Lions
  7. 49′A goal for Preston Lions on 49′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  8. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Lions 0–1 Preston Lions
  9. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Preston Lions win: 41% at kick-off, 75% now
  10. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Preston Lions win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 43%)
  11. 50′We published Preston Lions at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 5–19–75
  12. 51′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 5–19–76
  13. 64′We published Preston Lions at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  14. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Preston Lions win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
  15. 73′We published Preston Lions at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  16. 74′Lions score on 73′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 15–68–18
  17. 74′We said Preston Lions at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 15–68–18
  18. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Lions 1–1 Preston Lions
  19. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Preston Lions win: 41% at kick-off, 18% now
  20. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Preston Lions win 85%)
  21. 79′We said Preston Lions at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 11–76–13
  22. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Preston Lions win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
  23. 83′We said Preston Lions at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 8–83–9
  24. 84′Lions find the net on 84′. 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
  25. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Lions 2–1 Preston Lions
  26. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Preston Lions win: 41% at kick-off, under 1% now
  27. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Lions win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 85%)
  28. 85′We said Preston Lions at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
  29. 86′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–6–0
  30. FTFULL TIME Lions 2–1 Preston Lions
  31. FTLions 2–1 Preston Lions · Preston Lions win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Preston Lions are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lions 31%, draw 28%, Preston Lions 41%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Lions v Preston LionsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Lions win31%
Draw28%
Preston Lions win41%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 09:30

RoundGroup stage · matchday 2

VenueLions Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lions

Preston Lions

4Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Australian Championship

Last match: 15 Oct · Australian Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Preston Lions1−11
4Lions1−10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · preston lions winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 19 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off
41% The market39%
Us41%
Market39%

We make Preston Lions a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lions v Preston Lions1.12 – 1.33
Form · Australian Championship this season · since 15 OctW0 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L0
Table places · points 0 v 14 v 3
The market · Preston Lions win39% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 09:12
Our probability · Preston Lions win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lions win31%35%−4
Draw28%26%+2
Preston Lions win41%39%+2
Over 2.5 goals44%53%−9
Both teams to score50%58%−8
Over 1.5 goals71%76%−5
Over 3.5 goals23%32%−9
Lions or draw59%61%−2
Lions clean sheet26%––
Preston Lions clean sheet33%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%
0123450 9.0 11.0 7.6 3.4 1 9.2 13.3 8.6 3.8 2 5.4 7.2 4.8 2.1 3 2.0 2.7 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lions down, Preston Lions across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Australian Championship this season · since 15 Oct

LIONS

L1–2

PRESTON LIONS

D0–0

The table

2026 · group 4
#TEAMPGDPTS
1South Hobart1+13
2Wollongong Wolves1+12
3Preston Lions1−11
4Lions1−10

The competition's standings before kick-off.