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Canberra FC v Sutherland Sharks
Canberra FCSutherland SharksAustralian Championship · SAT 24 OCT · Deakin Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Canberra FC win at 55%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Canberra FC 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Canberra FC v Sutherland Sharks
- 2′Sutherland Sharks find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 33–22–45
- 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Canberra FC 0–1 Sutherland Sharks
- 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Canberra FC win: 55% at kick-off, 33% now
- 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Sutherland Sharks win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Canberra FC win 55%)
- 3′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–22–45
- 14′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–24–47
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Canberra FC win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
- 28′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 0–1 · 24–25–51
- 41′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–54
- 45′HALF-TIME Canberra FC 0–1 Sutherland Sharks
- 46′SECOND HALF Canberra FC 0–1 Sutherland Sharks
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Canberra FC win: 55% at kick-off, 15% now
- 53′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–27–59
- 63′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–26–65
- 71′A goal for Sutherland Sharks on 70′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
- 71′We said Canberra FC at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Canberra FC 0–2 Sutherland Sharks
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Canberra FC win: 55% at kick-off, 1% now
- FTFULL TIME Canberra FC 0–2 Sutherland Sharks
- FTCanberra FC 0–2 Sutherland Sharks · Canberra FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Canberra FC are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Canberra FC 55%, draw 22%, Sutherland Sharks 23%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 63%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Canberra FC win55%Sutherland Sharks win23%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 07:00
RoundGroup stage · matchday 2
VenueDeakin Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Canberra FCMINSutherland SharksEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Canberra FC
Sutherland Sharks
Last match: 18 Oct · Australian Championship
Last match: 17 Oct · Australian Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026 · Australian Championship · group 1Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Canberra FC | 1 | −1 | 1 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 1 | −1 | 0 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Canberra FC a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 27 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 53%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canberra FC win | 55% | 28% | +27 |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | −2 |
| Sutherland Sharks win | 23% | 49% | −26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | 81% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 41% | +2 |
| Canberra FC or draw | 77% | 51% | +26 |
| Canberra FC clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Sutherland Sharks clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Australian Championship this season · since 17 Oct
CANBERRA FC
SUTHERLAND SHARKS
The table
2026 · Australian Championship · group 1| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  South Melbourne | 2 | +2 | 5 |
| 2 |  Sydney United | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Canberra FC | 1 | −1 | 1 |
| 4 | Sutherland Sharks | 1 | −1 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.